What does Lukashenko want to achieve with the arrest?
At least two things, says Hummels. First of all, intimidation. He wants to show opponents and dissidents: you are not safe anywhere. In addition, Lukashenko has worked very hard to create an information vacuum in Belarus. Only on information channels that work from abroad, such as Nexta, he has. no influence. That was certainly what he was concerned with in the arrest of Protasevich. “
A third reason is more speculative: Lukashenko may have wanted to show his teeth. “With the intention of seeing how far he can go, how far he can challenge the west.”
Is this action unexpected?
According to correspondent Iris de Graaf, no one really expected this, but it comes as no surprise either. “Lukashenko has been working hard for months on the opposition and critical journalists. That increased last week. An important news channel in Belarus was blackened, an independent TV studio was closed and journalists were searched.”
“It seems that Lukashenko is very concerned about the fact that everyone still knows what is happening in Belarus and that the opposition is still so active on news channels. to initiate new demonstrations. It is striking that we have seen a similar harsh approach from critical media in Russia in recent weeks. “
What is the influence of Russia?
Putin has been pursuing closer integration of Belarus with Russia for nearly two decades and has seemed to ramp up efforts in recent years. Lukashenko has long opposed measures that could endanger Belarusian sovereignty, but the crackdown on the demonstrations last autumn and the West’s anger over them has brought Belarus closer to Russia. Since last year, both countries have also made new agreements on far-reaching cooperation.
“Since the demonstrations last year, Lukashenko has been completely on a leash from Moscow and it is clear that he cannot do much without the support of Russia. This diversion of the plane can hardly be done without the approval or at least the knowledge of the Kremlin”, says correspondent Iris de Graaf.
Furthermore, the Belarusian economy is largely dependent on Russia. And by continuing to support Lukashenko both economically and politically, the Kremlin is in fact approving what is happening in the country. “It is clear that Lukashenko felt confident enough to do this, and that will be in large part because he feels supported by Moscow.”
According to De Graaf, it is still quite unclear what is going on behind the scenes and how far Moscow’s hand reaches. But it is clear that Moscow supports Belarus. Russia called the anger and condemnations from the EU “shocking” and said the news of the arrest is being misused in the West for its own political and anti-Russian agenda.
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