From Afghanistan to the Sahel, the no-man’s lands where attacks occur

In addition to the mobilization in the name of Gaza, which continues to grow in all Muslim communities, there is another element that worries investigators in every country. In fact, a series of conditions are occurring on the international scene that have allowed the organization of the most sensational and bloody attacks in the past, from the Twin Towers to the Bataclan. To train fighters, finance their plans, procure documents and weapons, jihadist groups need large sanctuaries where they can feel safe from spies and surveillance.

The most insistent fears concern Afghanistan, abandoned by NATO troops in August 2021. In the North-East there are entire provinces dominated by Isis-K, the group that claimed responsibility for the massacre in Moscow: K stands for Khorasan, the ancient name of the region which also includes parts of Turkmenistan and Tajikistan. Volunteers from the Asian republics of the former USSR are trained in their bases – even the men arrested for the massacre in Russia are Tajiks – and groups of suicide bombers are formed, who often strike in Kabul and in the areas controlled by the Taliban, with whom they have been fighting since before the retreat of Western forces. Even American attempts to eradicate this eastern phalanx of the Islamic State were useless: in 2017 President Trump even had the “Mother of all bombs” launched on one of their valleys, the 10-ton bomb with a power inferior only to the warheads atomic. Now ISIS-K no longer has to worry about reconnaissance and raids from the air: it can dedicate itself to finalizing its plans, planning assaults abroad. Like the carnage in Iran – the Shiites are the enemies against which the Caliphate fought in Syria – with the bombs exploding in the crowd during the general’s commemoration Qassem Soleimani.

In the rest of Afghanistan, the Taliban have returned to the past and have resumed hosting Salafist groups of all nationalities. This is demonstrated by the killing in Kabul in August 2022 of Ayman al-Zawahirithe alter ego Osama Bin Laden in the creation of Al Qaeda, assassinated by a CIA drone. The elderly Egyptian doctor had started living again where the jihadist saga had begun, counting on the protection of old friends who had helped him prepare the attack of 11 September 2001. And so do other movements, such as the Tehrik-e- Taliban Pakistan: six days ago Islamabad’s fighters destroyed one of their camps. Photos of the satellites and analysis of communications lead us to believe that the Qaedist web is also being reborn from the ashes, like a revived Phoenix ready to sow death.

But there is another no man’s land at the center of all intelligence attention: the Sahel. One after another, the coup governments of Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger have expelled the French and European soldiers who managed the anti-terrorism operations: there are no longer soldiers, helicopters and jets to keep watch against the wave of fundamentalist acronyms that continues to spread. The putsch in Niamey since August has also reduced American drone flights from Agadez airport and a few days ago the Nigerian generals broke with the United States, ordering an end to all activity. That installation – which cost 110 million and was completed just three years ago – is the only one left in the Pentagon between the equator and the Mediterranean: now the US risks remaining blind to the new hotbed of jihadism. «If we cannot see, we cannot understand – declared the general Michael Langley, commander of Africom –. If we lose our position in the Sahel, this will reduce our ability to monitor and raise the alarm, with consequences for the security of the States as well.”

The black hole that is opening in Niger is even more frightening than the Afghan one: it is the crossroads of migration towards Europe, encouraged by the decriminalization of the transport of foreigners decided by the coup junta. ISIS wants to resume striking in the cities of the old continent, as it had done until 2018, when it could count on the Caliphate bases in Syria and Iraq. Over the last year, ISIS-K men have been arrested – almost always Afghan refugees – who were planning attacks in Germany, Holland, Austria and Sweden. Last January 4, the spokesperson of the entire Islamic State, Abu Hudhaifa al-Ansari, issued a call to arms against Jews and “Christian crusaders”: “Kill them wherever you find them. Attack them on all the roads of America and Europe to avenge the Muslims of Palestine, Iraq and Syria. Hit them with cars. Attack them and slaughter them; let them know that crimes committed in Islamic countries will be punished in Washington, Paris, London and Rome.” The calls for violence have intensified with the start of Ramadan: “It will be the month of victory”, promised the latest bulletin of their online magazine.

Italy appears more and more often in their proclamations. And we no longer speak of Rome in a symbolic sense to indicate Christianity, as happened in the sermons of Caliph al-Baghdadi, but as a concrete target. In the wiretaps of the investigation into the three Palestinians arrested two weeks ago in L’Aquila, where they had lived for years as political refugees, attacks to be carried out in Israel and the West Bank and even weapons – wrote the judge – “to be used on Italian territory” are evoked. .