The user Théo bet on the Republican on a large scale on the Polymarket prediction market. This because he concluded that the election polls would be wrong.
<img alt="Will Harris or Trump win: This was probably the most popular bet on prediction markets in recent months.” data-nzz-tid=”article-image” width=”4440″ height=”2960″ src=”https://img.nzz.ch/2024/11/09/fe0ae5ee-86ea-4e2b-90d8-b75e25b82046.jpeg?width=654&height=436&fit=bounds&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=4440,2960,x0,y0″ loading=”eager” srcset=”https://img.nzz.ch/2024/11/09/fe0ae5ee-86ea-4e2b-90d8-b75e25b82046.jpeg?width=680&height=453&fit=bounds&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=4440,2960,x0,y0 680w, https://img.nzz.ch/2024/11/09/fe0ae5ee-86ea-4e2b-90d8-b75e25b82046.jpeg?width=1360&height=907&fit=bounds&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=4440,2960,x0,y0 1360w, https://img.nzz.ch/2024/11/09/fe0ae5ee-86ea-4e2b-90d8-b75e25b82046.jpeg?width=327&height=218&fit=bounds&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=4440,2960,x0,y0 327w, https://img.nzz.ch/2024/11/09/fe0ae5ee-86ea-4e2b-90d8-b75e25b82046.jpeg?width=654&height=436&fit=bounds&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=4440,2960,x0,y0 654w” class=”image-placeholder__image” style=”cursor:pointer;transform:scale(1);”/>
Will Harris or Trump win: This was probably the most popular bet on prediction markets in recent months.
Carlos Barria / Reuters
The election polls have predicted a neck-and-neck race between Harris and Trump. But someone saw that these forecasts were misleading. A Frenchman who calls himself “Théo” bet aggressively on a Trump election victory on the Polymarket prediction market.
According to the analysis firm Chainalysis, he won over $85 million. This is because he even correctly predicted that Trump would win swing states like Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.
Risked $30 million
“Théo,” who exchanged emails with journalists from the “Wall Street Journal,” took considerable risks. After a thorough analysis of the survey results, he became so convinced that he placed bets totaling over $30 million that could have expired worthless. As a former trader at several banks, he had the necessary change.
There are many small “Théos” active on betting platforms like Polymarket who are willing to bet money on their opinions. This explains why such prediction markets often – but not always – make more precise predictions than expert panels or opinion polls.
Is there a ban coming?
However, “Théo’s” big win has now brought France’s gaming authority into action. According to the Bloomberg news agency, she is considering banning Polymarket and Co. for French citizens. However, it is rather irrelevant what the Autorité Nationale des Jeux decides. Polymarket, which is based in New York, doesn’t even know who its customers are. It is based on blockchain technology.
If you want to bet on Polymarket, you transfer your money via a crypto account – and one can be opened faster than an email account. Of course, the French authorities could block access to the website from France.
We don’t know what “Théo” thinks about a possible ban on prediction markets. What is certain is that he and other betting enthusiasts could easily overcome such network blocks.
American citizens are also actually prohibited from betting on Polymarket. But de facto it is mostly Americans who are active there. This is reflected in the fact that a large majority of bets have a strong connection to the USA.
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