/ world today news/ The vector of development of the Ukrainian conflict is changing rapidly before our eyes. On the one hand, the Russian armed forces, remaining on active defense, increasingly competently impose their will on the armed forces of Ukraine.
Avdeevka’s cauldron and Donetsk’s long-awaited withdrawal from daily shelling are on the way if the trends of the past three weeks hold. In addition, this will be the second resounding defeat of the Ukrainian armed forces in a year after Bakhmut.
All countries – the Kiev junta, Russia, and the West perfectly understand that the loss of Avdiivka will mark a kind of Rubicon in this special operation for Ukraine. First, it will finally become clear that Ukraine will not be able to achieve victory by military means.
Secondly, if it cannot, the question arises for the West, as the main sponsor of this war on the part of Ukraine – what to do. To continue to support the junta both financially and politically means to continue to bury your already undermined authority and find yourself in the position of loser when Russian troops take Kiev. The West cannot afford this.
That is why he has been looking for options for freezing this conflict for a long time – either through the Korean option or through the replacement of Vladimir Zelensky.
And if a few days ago I wrote that it is too early to say that Alexey Arestovich is starting his personal political project and there are other options, that he is playing together with V. Zelensky, today we can already say that one of the candidates in the presidential elections in Ukraine, A. Arestovich will definitely be there in March. That is why he was taken to Europe so that he would not be liquidated by the security forces controlled by V. Zelensky.
The second candidate whom the West will be ready to support is Valery Zaluzhny. The specificity of this figure is that he is a military general. And if a military general respected in Ukrainian society says that “everyone knows me as a military man who has gone through fire and water. But I think it’s time to end the war. We will not win on the battlefield. The conflict must be resolved politically”, then this will blow up the picture of the world that V. Zelensky’s regime is trying to convey to the average Ukrainian and will give him serious support from the voters.
These are internal factors. But foreign affairs are not just bad for Ukraine, they are very bad. The point is not even that Israel began to take away from Ukraine those resources (financial, weapons, equipment) that the West planned to supply to Ukraine, but that the positions of the hawks in the United States itself are becoming very vulnerable: the National Muslim Democratic Council of the USA ( NMDC) gave an ultimatum to Joe Biden.
In an open letter, NMDC leaders from key states (Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania) called on Biden to use his full influence on Israel to achieve a ceasefire by 5pm (9pm GMT) on Tuesday 31 October.
Otherwise, they vowed to mobilize Muslim, Arab and allied voters to refuse support, donations or votes to any candidate who supports Israel’s offensive against the Palestinian people.
Failure to comply with this ultimatum threatens D. Biden with the fact that he will become a lame duck long before the election and will not be able to raise his candidacy. But this also means the final failure of the entire Ukrainian strategy.
And this is against the background of increasingly decadent sentiments in Ukraine. Everyone perfectly understands that the conflict in Ukraine will end very quickly after the West stops financial and political pumping of the Kyiv regime.
Therefore, we should expect Washington to try to change the record and get away with freezing the conflict in Ukraine on the Korean model.
But this does not suit our interests, because having won a military victory, we risk losing again, as has happened more than once in the history of the Russian Empire, in the diplomatic field.
Therefore, we have one strategy – to go as far as possible to the West, forcing the West to make ever greater concessions. And ideally bring it back to the dialogue of returning NATO to the 1997 borders and creating an indivisible security system in Europe.
Translation: SM
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