Freeze (NB): see the first effects of rate hikes + symmetrical derivatives of foreign exchange interventions

Ve faith on the web NB local interview for esk lenka started the radio somewhere bankovn radiy NB and the even vice-governor Eva Zamrazilov e if you would employees (…) forced indexing from outside salary o inflation, it would be a reason for aggressive advertising, he added annual rates. (e is general about employees, no o zamstnancch NB ☺.)

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She listed some of the signals that it took her a year the money policy has started to work. Between tmito signly vid nsledugc skutenosti: first after tech monthly price growth slowed down, (…) stamps stabilization in some price ranges, for example apartment furnished, covered, shoes, what were the price ranges, in which we really excelled at them other European ones stty. So it was clear that it was you the sellers pitched in marthey said yes, the buildings were behind covid is very saturated time, so have the urge to shop, take my ty mare zvme.(…) meziron drop volume penz in obhu, (…) oban pesuvaj from all banks t pension for term deposits and deposits with any vpovdn lhtou. (…) rst novch vr slows down.

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It is noteworthy that, according to Eva, he is lazy bank work v new complex on the administrative and financial ceiling pro intervention they did not debate the decision in detail. But drunk z Which regarding the bond NB at the domestic bank sector (viz t verrej Rann restart) se zd, e intervention continue and their volume in ervence shriveled in effort move the crown to a stronger equal. Data bud počaj, e na on nov bankovn rad dolo to zmn intervention tactics, which would probably only be possible after a thorough debate.

Frozen (NB) 2: symetrick drainage devizovch intervenc

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What’s up to date? devizovch intervenc NBEva is clear: if you devizov reserve arose due to mnov policy (especially interventions against crowns bhem tzv. course bundle), yes nemm dn problm with their training for my politics in that opanem death

From my point of view, this symmetrical weight is a reindeer properly In 2012 NB she dreamed repo ratethat is the conventional currency policy instrument, if zero, and still threatened to decline inflation dl pod cl, the tud NB entered an unconventional turn devizovch intervenc tm, ev artificially weakened in 2013 Czech crown exchange rate. At the time (i.e. in 2017) when the pestelovna started to threaten inflate cle, se NB she had to follow her own footsteps from an unconventional turn, i.e. sell off her devizovch reserve (were not to intervene in support of poslen crowns), and only after the end of this sale raising years rates.

But the problem is that it is too late for this weight. She started with revalvan interventions NB never before first outside of annual rates (so sometime in 2017), nbr and this year. In this way, the current comes to a mix of conventional and unconventional politics, which significantly reduces its transferability (for more on this, see Rann restart).

On defense NB se vud, e je v good companies: i Fed a ECB started last year or this year raising years rates dv, don’t know on the way quantitative tightening got rid of (all or at least half) of the valuables bought in the past years on the way quantitativnho uvolovn

But there is one difference: the mentioned foreign central banks do not want to engage in quantitative tightening because (among other things) there is great uncertainty about what such a procedure would actually do to the financial markets. On the other hand, about the effects of messages crowns caused by clearly communicated sales devizovch reserve there is not much doubt about it.

Michal Skoepa, analyst esk spoitelny

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