Munir Al-Rabee wrote in Al-Modon:
Suleiman Frangieh reduces appearances and statements. He is absent from it despite deliberating his name as a candidate for the presidency of the republic. He insists on staying away from Beirut, where he rests in his home in Bnachii, the one who rarely leaves the region. He holds most of his political and diplomatic meetings there, but there remain exceptions that are linked to inevitable dates in the capital, as was the case with him previously, so he chooses a suite in a hotel to hold his meetings and returns to the north. And the north has a story for Franjieh. He always tries to distance him from the context of the historical wars of Mount Lebanon, whether between the people of the “mountain” of one sect or sectarian wars, or between them and others. Therefore, he is keen on the Tripolitanian extension and the historical relationship between Suleiman Franjieh, the grandfather, and President Rashid Karami, and that which the man is keen to maintain regionally and socially with the various components. The man brings out from the background of his mind the historical conflict between Bcharre and Zgharta as well, since the days of the two presenters. He had previously left the issue of the warring conflict with the Lebanese Forces, by reconciling with Samir Geagea.
Clear relationships
On this basis, Franjieh views himself as a connecting point that does not divide. He is the permanent candidate for the presidency of the republic, especially at this stage. It is the strongest for him, his readings, and the numbers in his possession. In an informal chat with him among his game, almost all of his positions are known, and he does not back down from them, from the strategic and sincere relationship with Hezbollah, to the strong relationship with President Nabih Berri, and he is the one who does not give up his declaration of his strong relationship with Assad’s Syria, and has always He stressed that “Assad is more than a brother,” and the relationship with him is political, familial, personal and fraternal. The subject of his relationship with Damascus does not need much discussion, unlike others. He is the one who was and remained on the side of Assad in the darkest of circumstances, unlike those who seek to arrange the relationship with him according to the interest and what it requires.
Christians account
The man remains silent when he is targeted from the gate of Christian representation or from the gate of pact. This logic for him is not correct, as no one can challenge anyone’s pact. It also rejects the principle that “Christians are targeted”. No one targets them as much as they target themselves, since before Taif until now. In the year 1989, Christians fought among themselves over influence and power, and the settlement came at their expense. Today, there is fear that the same scenario will be repeated, through any settlement that might loom on the regional horizon, whether it is a Saudi-Iranian or a Saudi-Syrian one. And if the Christians did not keep up with it, it will be at their expense. As for the slogans related to Christian sites being targeted in the state, this logic seems wrong to Franjieh, because some “hardcore” Christians put themselves in confrontation with everyone and wrestle with everyone, and when other sects come to defend themselves and their gains or sites…these Christians come out. Let it be rumored that they are exposed to war. This logic seems to be the most dangerous thing that Christians are exposed to, because such propositions push some to raise slogans of federalism or division, or push others to think of going to war-like adventures. He refuses that Christians should be obstructive forces for all entitlements.
He refuses to be in a different position with everyone. In the recent period, he sought to open lines of communication and all channels with the various political forces, allies and others. Unlike the Lebanese Forces, which enter into conflict with its allies, especially the Future Movement and the Sunnis, in addition to the disagreement with the Progressive Socialist Party. The same applies to the Free Patriotic Movement, which has recently entered into a dispute with Hezbollah and with the Speaker of Parliament. Any disagreement with allies as well as disagreement with opponents. From here, Frangieh insists that he advance in a different way to build relations with everyone.
Presidency: sooner or later?
These circumstances and facts make him see himself as the closest to the presidency. Because any equation will exist, it must provide a personality that satisfies the group to which the man belongs, i.e. satisfies the March 8 coalition, provided that this personality is not provocative to others and acceptable to them, because he takes pride in his relationship with the Sunnis and that he is able to collect a good number From their votes, he is also able to collect 10 votes for Christian representatives, at a minimum. In exchange for this president, a prime minister must be chosen who satisfies and reassures the other party as well.
Franjieh does not seem in a hurry to launch a political movement in order to reach the presidency. He seems kind of reassured that she will come sooner or later. He did not hear of any internal or external veto over him, with the exception of the veto of the Christian forces, that is, the Free Patriotic Movement and the Lebanese Forces. However, the internal dynamism is able to overcome this issue, as long as the constitution guarantees a two-thirds quorum and therefore the pact is available, and no one can go to choose a prime minister outside the will of the Sunnis and without the votes of Sunni deputies, and ignore the principle of the pact, while seeking to implement it in the presidency of the republic. Secondly, whoever talks about representation and its validity should look at the results of this electoral law, which brought deputies to seventy votes.
Scenario for the year 2016
“I am the president.” This is a fixed equation in Franjieh’s accounts, and his reading of the developments of the situation internally and externally. The most important thing is that a settlement be reached soon because the situation is unbearable. He believes that all developments abroad lead to his arrival, especially since it is necessary to stop at the Saudi-Iranian and Saudi-Syrian rapprochement. According to what is considered, he has not been informed of any veto from any party so far. The French do not object to his arrival, and the Americans do not place a veto on his election, while no Saudi objection was reported. On the other hand, he did not receive any Saudi approval.
However, the prevailing view is still betting on a repeat of the 2016 scenario when Michel Aoun was elected President of the Republic after a long hiatus. And it was necessary to end the void. Hariri pursued a settlement without Saudi intervention, and whatever it was. Today, the matter can be repeated, and in the event that Saudi Arabia does not interfere, Franjieh will be able to provide 65 votes, including Sunni representatives, and then an election session can be called. In the event that the quorum is disrupted by the other forces, their problem will turn against them in the disruption. As for if the obstruction does not take place, then he will be president, so that the focus will be on how to reassure Saudi Arabia and stop the campaigns against it.
Franjieh points out that he is the only presidential candidate who said that he is able to collect from Hezbollah and from Syria what no one else can collect. So the man returns to his same logical equation, a president who reassures the axis of resistance, and a prime minister who reassures the other side. This is the only way out of the vacuum and to achieve the settlement. In the event that this did not happen, and things went in another direction, then this means that what happened is greater than everyone else, internally and externally.
