The next few days are particularly critical for France, after Prime Minister Michel Barnier’s decision not to accept the increase in social security costs requested by the opposition and, in the absence of a parliamentary majority, to invoke Article 49.3 of the French Constitution, which gives him the ability to legislate in the absence of the National Assembly.
Following this, predictably, both the New Popular Front of the Left (NFP) – the coalition that includes the Socialists, the Greens, France Insubordinate and the Communist Party – and Marine Le Pen’s far-right party National Alarm (RN) to file a motion of impeachment against the government.
If the proposal is upvoted, it will lead to its downfall and the non-passing of the state budget of 2025. As reported by the French media, the president of France, Emmanuel Macron, is already looking for the replacement of Michel Barnier.
Read also: France: President Macron is already looking for a replacement for Prime Minister Michel Barnier
The Waterloo of the Barnier government demonstrates the generalized political instability in which Central Europe has been plunged, following the collapse of the Scholz government in Germany.
“Turning Point”
“France is at a turning point and politicians have a responsibility not to plunge the country into uncertainty,” said French Finance Minister Antoine Armand on Tuesday 12/3. The “tipping point” to which Arman refers is essentially the prospect of France remaining in the eurozone without a government and without a budget at the same time.
The developments plunged the eurozone’s second-largest economy deeper into political crisis, with many in doubt over whether the 2025 budget can be passed. The euro fell more than 1% against the dollar, having fallen about 0.7% before the announcements the motions of no confidence.
The budget was the government’s first major test, with France already having one of the highest debt-to-output ratios in the euro zone, as well as a spiraling deficit that has drawn criticism from Brussels.
In response, Barnier presented the draft budget in September with spending cuts of 60 billion euros. euros, as well as tax increases on business and the wealthy – both extremely unpopular in France.
What’s next
When it comes to governing France, if the RN eventually joins forces with the NFP to oust Barnier, President Macron has a number of options. However, he is constitutionally limited by the fact that, having dissolved parliament in June, he cannot do so again until June 2025.
He could reinstate Barnier as prime minister, but this is considered unlikely. He could also ask France’s warring political parties to try to form a new coalition, this time with more support. Another possibility is for Macron to appoint a technocratic government to oversee the administration of France for another six months. Finally, there is also the option of resigning himself, triggering new presidential elections, but for now this too is considered unlikely.
Although Le Pen says her party will support the no-confidence vote, the RN could still change course. The last chance this year to topple the government will be in the final budget vote on December 20. After all, some analysts wonder what the political benefit would be for Le Pen to topple the government now.
The article that “drops” Barnier
French Prime Minister Michel Barnier invoked Article 49.3 of the Constitution to pass the bill to finance social security, without the approval of the National Assembly.
Paragraph 3 of Article 49 allows the Prime Minister to ignore the National Assembly in passing bills, “after discussion in the Council of Ministers”.
But when the prime minister initiates this process, MPs have the possibility to submit a motion of censure within 24 hours. If this proposal is supported by a majority of MPs, the law is rejected and the government is overthrown.
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France: President Macron is already looking for a replacement for Prime Minister Michel Barnier
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