According to a recent report from the French Ministry of Agriculture, in November 2022 agricultural prices rose by 13.3%, although they slowed down the rate of increase of the previous months when they grew by 16.8% in October or 19.7%. of September. In the same trend, inputs moved with an increase, in November, of 21.3%, but that is lower than the figures experienced in October and September when they reached an increase of 24.6 and 27.5%.
With the exception of eggs, whose prices are accelerating, in relation to the worsening of the bird flu epidemic, all products contribute to the calm of agricultural prices. In addition to the renewal of the Black Sea corridor for grains and oilseeds, the slowdown in world demand due to inflationary pressures and the lockdowns in China is putting downward pressure on the prices of agricultural and livestock production. In addition to these factors, the cost of agricultural inputs have also softened their rise, mainly due to less pressure from energy and fertilizer prices on the different production sectors.
arable crops
As of December 1, 2022, winter grain sowings in 2023 are estimated to increase compared to 2022 (+1.2%). However, durum wheat surfaces would decrease for the second consecutive year. In connection with fears of a slowdown in world demand for cereals and the 120-day extension of the agreement on the Black Sea corridor for Ukraine in November, cereal prices soften their rise in November, they do so by 12, 5% compared to 75.5% that was experienced, for example, in April.
In 2023, the winter rapeseed area would increase by 4.9% year-on-year and 6.5% compared to the five-year average. After the drop in Canadian rapeseed prices and in a context of less dynamism in Chinese demand and continued exports of Ukrainian sunflower (the world’s leading exporter) through the Black Sea corridor, oilseed prices fell by second month in a row. In November, they were 8.1% lower than in 2021, but 41.0% higher than the average prices of 2017-2021.
Leche
Prices, in France, remain very firm in a context of falling world prices for dairy products Declining since the beginning of 2022, the collection of cow’s milk confirmed in October (+1.3% year-on-year) the increase registered in September (+0.4%).
The warm and humid conditions of the autumn favored the recovery of the collection in France in a context of attractive milk prices. The global demand for dairy products is less dynamic than in 2021 (in particular, due to the lower presence of China in purchases after the numerous lockdowns in that country). However, it is important enough that, together with the still limited availability of milk, dairy prices remain high despite some slowdown from spring in Oceania and autumn in the EU (skimmed milk powder ).
Despite a slight relaxation, the price of cow’s milk paid to producers remains high: in France, in November, it is 22.8% higher than in 2021 and 30.0% higher than the 2017 average -2021.
These price increases occur in a context in which the pressure of production costs has been easing since June, slowing down the increases that have gone from 22% in June to 19.7% in October.
Cattle
Prices stabilize at a high level. During the period from September to November 2022, the slaughter of larger cattle decreased, as in the previous months. This decline is a consequence of the continuous decline in the dairy and suckling herd in France and the EU. Beef calf culls have also declined since the beginning of the year.
Since June, French beef exports have been below 2021 volumes (-16.8% in October). At the same time, imports are increasing (+33.8% in October) to meet the demand of the catering sector.
Beef production costs have stabilized at a high level and continue to rise strongly throughout the year
Porcine
In November 2022, after a year-on-year decline during the summer and early fall, pig slaughter (by weight) is close to 2021 volumes (-0.2%); however, they are still below the five-year average (-4.1%). Like the availability in the EU, the French supply of pork remains limited, reflecting in particular the periodic erosion of the census.
French imports of pork meat and fat, which have been increasing year-on-year since the beginning of 2022 to meet domestic demand, fell in October for the second consecutive month and are almost at the same level as in the last five years. At the same time, exports remain well below 2021 volumes and the 2017-21 average. Sales to the EU, well oriented in the first half, contracted in the second, while sales to third countries continued to decline.
Given this limited availability in France, but also in the EU, and despite a certain slowdown in November, also in Europe, pig prices remain high. In France, they increased by 47.4% year-on-year in November, after +57.1% in October and +46.8% in September.
While, in the period from September to November, the price of pig feed, still high, has slowed down since the end of summer (+29.1% in November, after +35.3% in August).
sheep
In the period from September to November 2022, sheep slaughter (by weight) are on average slightly below those of 2021 (-0.4%) and more markedly below the five-year average volumes (-3 .8%). These decreases can be explained by the fact that the increase in cull ewes slaughter only partially offsets the decrease in lambs.
In an attempt to fill this supply deficit, French sheepmeat imports continue to grow throughout the year. Faced with a limited French supply, and despite the lack of dynamism of consumption in France and in the EU, which weighs on sheep producer prices, these remained at a high level in November, in a context in which prices production costs remain high.
SUPPLIES
At the same time, the purchase prices of the inputs used by farmers continued to moderate the increases, although they are still experiencing increases in November of 21.3%, less than the 24.6% in October or the 27.5% in September. decreasing throughout the year.
After accelerating in October, energy prices slowed again in November. The prices of feed and, above all, of fertilizers, also contributed to the moderation because although they do so by 37.6% in November, this figure is lower than the +50.2% of October or +79.9 % in September. In a context of falling natural gas prices, the production of nitrogenous fertilizers is reactivating in Europe.
