France: After the shock of the legislative elections, it is time for negotiations for an elusive majority

The recomposed Meeting, who to control? After the shock of the legislative elections which clearly slowed the surge of the Nationwide Rally, France is on the lookout for a parliamentary majority. A headache for the union of the left, fragile regardless of its first place, and a Macronie in decline.

Uncertainties stay greater than ever. Neither the New Well-liked Entrance (NFP, round 180 seats), nor the presidential camp (round 160 seats), nor the RN and its allies (greater than 140 seats) can obtain, alone, an absolute majority (289 deputies).

The left is already placing the stress on. The NFP should current a candidacy for Matignon “inside the week”, the chief of the socialists, Olivier Faure, assured on franceinfo.

The chief of the environmentalists, Marine Tondelier, mentioned on RTL that Emmanuel Macron “ought to name at present” on the left to present him the identify of a Prime Minister.

Nevertheless, he may hold his place, or a minimum of be instantly reappointed so as to forestall an institutional vacuum. He mentioned on Sunday night that he was prepared to remain at Matignon “so long as responsibility requires” within the context of the Olympic Video games.

The Elysée Palace is enjoying it protected: the top of state “will watch for the brand new Nationwide Meeting to be structured earlier than making the required choices.” His place is extremely anticipated, as he’s the one with the ability to nominate the Prime Minister.

The method may take a very long time, ready for a hypothetical settlement between a number of political forces on a candidate for Matignon and a program. Until Emmanuel Macron opts for a technical authorities on the Italian mannequin.

A number of voices inside the presidential camp, resembling Yaël Braun-Pivet, believed on Monday “greater than ever within the coalition”. “Everybody should make an effort to discover a authorities program,” she pressured on France 2.

And Aurore Bergé prolonged her hand to LR and its sixty deputies within the new Meeting. “Do they need to stay a scientific opposition pressure?” the minister requested on RTL.

On the RN aspect, nonetheless in shock after legislative elections that fell far in need of their hopes, they denounced “the quagmire” into which the nation has been plunged.

Emmanuel Macron should “determine whether or not he ought to appoint a far-left Prime Minister, after which good luck with the boldness vote, good luck with constructing a funds,” his vice-president, Sébastien Chenu, mentioned on France Inter.

– “Institutional paradox” –

The equation is nearly insoluble. With out a part of the left, the Macronists will be unable to control. With out a part of the Macronists, the New Well-liked Entrance is not going to succeed both… Drawback: the presidential camp has made it clear that it’s going to not ally itself with La France Insoumise, a speculation additionally swept apart by Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s motion.

Trying to the Republicans may additionally show to be a wasted effort: Laurent Wauquiez, again on the nationwide scene along with his election in Haute-Loire, has warned that “there shall be neither coalition nor compromise” on the a part of LR.

“This alliance in opposition to the RN ends in a type of institutional paradox. The voters mobilized, responded to this name however to provide a France that’s ungovernable at this stage,” political scientist Martial Foucault (Cevipof) analyses for AFP.

On the left, the leaders of the New Well-liked Entrance are as soon as once more challenged to beat their variations, on the coronary heart of an alliance as broad as it’s heterogeneous, starting from Jean-Luc Mélenchon to Raphaël Glucksmann; from the anti-fascist Raphaël Arnault to the previous president François Hollande, elected in Corrèze.

If the steadiness of energy between the political teams of the previous Nupes has been rebalanced, the Insoumis stay the primary group on the left, with round 75 deputies in opposition to round sixty for the socialists, round thirty for the ecologists and round ten for the communists.

“Those that inform us that they may have a majority with out LFI didn’t have the identical maths academics as me (…) I do not see how that is attainable,” famous Marine Tondelier.

“An excellent Prime Minister should calm the nation (and) unite in his personal camp, due to this fact it’s “not going to be Jean-Luc Mélenchon”, she added.

We may even must take note of the “rebels” within the midst of a divorce with LFI, resembling Clémentine Autain and François Ruffin, who is not going to sit with their former colleagues.

Emmanuel Macron should “both go away or appoint a Prime Minister” from the New Well-liked Entrance, declared Jean-Luc Mélenchon, inflexibly. Mr. Glucksmann, for his half, was far more open: “We should discuss, we should talk about, we should dialogue” within the face of this “divided” Meeting, defined the president of Place publique.

The NFP’s programme, from the repeal of the pension reform to the minimal wage of 1,600 euros web, appears the truth is incompatible with the ambitions of the presidential camp.

– Bitterness on the RN –

On the identical time, discussions will happen on the distribution of political teams and the allocation of key positions within the Nationwide Meeting, with the election of its future president on July 18. The outgoing Yaël Braun-Pivet, re-elected in Yvelines, continues to consider within the perch.

On the Nationwide Rally, nonetheless, the temper is bitter.

At 28, the president of the motion Jordan Bardella should acknowledge the failure of his “Matignon plan”, which as soon as once more got here up in opposition to the “republican entrance” regardless of a transparent enhance in seats. However the RN’s victory is “solely delayed” and “the tide (…) continues to rise”, hoped Marine Le Pen, nonetheless within the operating for 2027.

Within the meantime, the doorways of the Palais Bourbon formally open at 2:00 p.m. on Monday to welcome a few of the 577 deputies of the brand new legislature… Not all of them shall be there: the Insoumis, for instance, have deliberate to come back collectively on Tuesday at 10:00 a.m.