The fourth dose of covid vaccine is likely to be needed, with the spotlight on fall 2022. This was stated by Stephane Bancel, CEO of Moderna, one of the two manufacturers of mRna vaccine. The effectiveness of the booster dose is expected to decrease over the months, as happened after the 2 doses of the ordinary vaccination course. “I would be surprised to receive data in the coming weeks on the basis of which the” booster dose “held well over time. I would expect it to not hold up well”, Bancel’s words – as Cnbc reports – during an event organized by Goldman Sachs. .
Several countries, including Great Britain and South Korea, are already ordering vaccine doses for a fourth round. “I believe we will need booster doses in the fall of 2022 and beyond,” he says, alluding to the need for annual boosters for the elderly and frail. “We said that, according to our beliefs, this virus will not go away. We will have to live with it,” adds the CEO.
The appearance of the Omicron variant on the scene could accelerate the transition from the acute to the endemic phase of the crisis. At the same time, Bancel points out, caution is needed: the latest variant has taken the scientific community by surprise and the situation could repeat itself. “It is totally impossible to predict whether a new variant is coming in a day, a week, 3 months. And whether it is worse in terms of the severity of the disease. You just have to be careful.”
In December, Moderna published a premiliminary study showing that a booster dose of 50 micrograms increases antibodies to the Omicron variant 37 times. With a dose of 100 micrograms, this is 83 times. Data collected in Great Britain by the UK Health Security Agency shows that, 20 weeks after the second Pfizer or Moderna dose, the effectiveness against symptomatic infection caused by Omicron drops to 10%. The same report indicates that the protection rises to 75% at 2 weeks after the booster dose. The effectiveness, however, begins to decline after 4 weeks. This is why, therefore, the hypothesis of a fourth dose is concrete according to Bancel. Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla recently also referred to the need for the fourth dose and also proposed a shorter interval to counter the effects of Omicron.
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