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As the disease continues for months claiming more lives globally, many ask with real concern: When and how can the world wake up from this nightmare?
This is the question that humans ask in the east and west of the earth, after the deadly virus spread, claiming the lives of thousands and infecting more than 140 thousand people, and disrupting work, travel and study in tens of countries.
Virus experts draw several scenarios to the end Virus "Sk" Who sparked the outbreak in China Late last year 2019, it has become a troubling nightmare for humanity, citing this country that is about to completely eradicate the epidemic after it was its first source.
Experts have set 4 parallel paths that can drop infection rates slowly, until its effect on humans begins to fade, namely:
1. Containment
Proper containment procedures may lead to the end of a virus "Sk" The Mustard, also known as "Coved 19"According to medical director of the US National Foundation for Infectious Diseases, William Hatvins.
In his speech, Shavens referred to a network "Fox News" To an example virus "SARS" Which spread between 2002 and 2003, and clarified that the virus was contained through close coordination between public health officials and doctors who were able to diagnose cases, isolate patients and track their movements, and adhere to strong policies to control the epidemic.
Indeed, containment efforts in China appear to be effective, at least according to the official figures announced in the country, as Beijing announced two weeks ago about two thousand cases per day, compared to 8 cases Friday and 15 Thursday.
But in the United States, some epidemiologists have questioned viruses if containment efforts are successful.
Tara Smith, an epidemiologist at Kent State University: "Two or three weeks ago. We had hope to contain the virus"Speaking, the matter got out of hand with increasing numbers of casualties and President Donald Trump declaring a state of emergency in the country.
The United States has recorded more than 2,000 infections, and 50 deaths.
Another researcher stated that the current indications in the United States do not herald the containment of the disease, calling for preparing for the worst, such as expanding tests among citizens, equipping hospitals and awareness messages.
The bottom line is that the containment scenario may be effective in some countries, but it may be excluded in other countries, at least in the recent period in light of these data.
2. It stops after hitting these
The outbreak may end after infecting people who are most vulnerable to it.
According to Chavins, the outbreak can slow down as soon as most people are exposed to it, so the targets available will be less, as was the case in a virus. "Zika" That appeared in South America and then soon subsided.
Joshua Epstein, a professor of epidemiology at New York University, explained that what usually happens is "Sufficient number of people infected with the virus, so there are no longer people at risk to allow it to remain and spread".
And the Spanish flu that swept the world in 1918 caused the death of tens of millions of people, most of them military personnel, until it was considered "The most deadly medical disaster in human history".
The epidemic began to spread after the end of the First World War, and the soldiers who were stationed in the virus-filled diphtheria dispersed.
But this flu stopped spreading, because those who survived had strong immunity compared to the infected and the victims, according to the website. "Life Science" Scientific.
3. The hotter weather
There is a possibility that cases of coronavirus infection will decrease as the weather warms, but it is not clear whether spring or summer will end the spread of the disease.
Schaffner says: "If corona is like other respiratory viruses, including influenza, it can subside as the weather gets warmer.".
But it is too early to know for sure, as scientists are still trying to understand the new virus that has infected about 140,000 people worldwide.
He continued: "We know that respiratory viruses are often seasonal, but not always. For example, regular influenza tends to be seasonal in the United States, but it is not so in other parts of the globe.".
A virus ended "SARS" Between 2002 and 2003 that killed 800 people after the summer month, but seasonal cases of the same virus were reported in the summer of 2014, albeit in small numbers.
4. The vaccine
The magic solution that people expect wherever they are to end this nightmare, but it takes time to reach its formula and experiment, and then produce sufficient quantities of it to meet the great global demand for it.
Quotes "Fox News" For WHO officials it may take approximately 18 months.
According to the president of the American National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, Cathy Stover will provide the vaccine for a virus "Sk" It is still in its early stages, although there are multiple attempts in more than one country.
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As the disease continues for months claiming more lives globally, many ask with real concern: When and how can the world wake up from this nightmare?
This is the question that humans ask in the east and west of the earth, after the deadly virus spread, claiming the lives of thousands and infecting more than 140 thousand people, and disrupting work, travel and study in tens of countries.
Virus experts have drawn several scenarios for the end of the Corona virus, which sparked an outbreak in China late last year 2019, and has become a disturbing nightmare for humanity, citing this country that is about to completely eradicate the epidemic after it was its first source.
Experts have set 4 parallel paths that can drop infection rates slowly, until its effect on humans begins to fade, namely:
1. Containment
Appropriate containment measures may lead to the end of the emerging “Corona” virus, also known as “Covid 19”, says medical director of the US National Infectious Diseases Foundation, Yatim Shavins.
Speaking to Fox News, Chaffins pointed to the example of the “SARS” virus that spread between 2002 and 2003, and explained that the virus was contained through close coordination between public health officials and doctors who were able to diagnose cases, isolate patients, track their movements, and adhere to strong policies To control the epidemic.
Indeed, containment efforts in China appear to be effective, at least according to the official figures announced in the country, as Beijing announced two weeks ago about two thousand cases per day, compared to 8 cases Friday and 15 Thursday.
But in the United States, some epidemiologists have questioned viruses if containment efforts are successful.
“Two or three weeks ago, it was our hope to contain the virus,” said Tara Smith, a state epidemiologist at Kent State University, speaking on the matter out of control as more and more people became infected and President Donald Trump declared a state of emergency in the country.
The United States has recorded more than 2,000 infections, and 50 deaths.
Another researcher stated that the current indications in the United States do not herald the containment of the disease, calling for preparing for the worst, such as expanding tests among citizens, equipping hospitals and awareness messages.
The bottom line is that the containment scenario may be effective in some countries, but it may be excluded in other countries, at least in the recent period in light of these data.
2. It stops after hitting these
The outbreak may end after infecting people who are most vulnerable to it.
According to Chaffins, the outbreak can slow down as soon as most people are exposed to it, and thus the available targets become fewer in front of it, as was the case in the Zika virus that appeared in South America and then soon subsided.
Joshua Epstein, a professor of epidemiology at New York University, explained that what usually happens is “a sufficient number of people contract the virus, so there are no longer people at risk to allow it to survive and spread.”
And the Spanish flu that swept the world in 1918 caused the deaths of tens of millions of people, most of them military personnel, until it was considered “the most deadly medical disaster in the history of mankind.”
The epidemic began to spread after the end of the First World War, and the soldiers who were stationed in the virus-filled diphtheria dispersed.
But this flu stopped spreading, because those who survived had strong immunity compared to the infected and the victims, according to the science website “Life Science”.
3. The hotter weather
There is a possibility that cases of coronavirus infection will decrease as the weather warms, but it is not clear whether spring or summer will end the spread of the disease.
“If Corona is like other respiratory viruses, including influenza, it can subside as the weather warms,” Schaffner says.
But it is too early to know for sure, as scientists are still trying to understand the new virus that has infected about 140,000 people worldwide.
He continued: “We know that respiratory viruses are often seasonal, but not always. For example, regular influenza tends to be seasonal in the United States, but it is not so in other parts of the globe.”
The SARS virus ended between 2002 and 2003, which killed 800 people after the summer month, but seasonal cases of the same virus were reported in the summer of 2014, albeit in small numbers.
4. The vaccine
The magic solution that people expect wherever they are to end this nightmare, but it takes time to reach its formula and experiment, and then produce sufficient quantities of it to meet the great global demand for it.
“Fox News” quoted WHO officials that it could take about 18 months.
According to Cathy Stuffer, president of the US National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, the development of a “Corona” vaccine is still in its early stages, although there are multiple attempts in more than one country.
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