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The “peacekeeping plans” launched in the Russian segment, according to which the Russian Federation is removed from everywhere and the “Crimea issue” is frozen for a while, are most likely another information trick of the Kremlin. I dare to suggest that the intention to conquer Ukraine has become a plan B for Russia. And plan A was not to lose too much or even everything.
As part of this plan, the Russians are beginning to look for the likely outlines of what some will call a deal or peace plan, but will consider a strategic pause. This task is also difficult for Russia, because they will have to convince not only their die-hard fascists, but also Ukrainians and Zelenskys, who are in no hurry to talk to Russia in general, and even more so about something where there is no liberation of our territories.
In addition to the situation at the front, the reason for starting such active information measures, I think, was the latest US-Russian contacts on nuclear issues.
In recent months, our partners have done a lot to convince Russia that the use of nuclear weapons is a bad option for Russia to continue the war.
Intelligence reports about US National Security Advisor Sullivan urging Ukraine to consider realistic demands on Crimea may be true and reflect some “red lines” drawn by the Russians during nuclear talks. Maintaining control over Crimea while losing everything else occupied in Ukraine now looks like a good option for the Kremlin.
Does this mean that the United States will force us to certain terms of a truce? Unnecessary.
Yes, the United States should bet more and more on China, a military conflict with which on Taiwan (or for any other reason) every day seems impossible or very difficult to avoid. Contradictions are growing in the Pacific region, the rules of security behavior are degrading, like international law in general, China lives on the firm conviction that it has become a superpower, the United States on the awareness that this is not yet the case. But, given the current circumstances, the Americans easily predict the situation, how China will behave if its ambitions to become a superpower are realized, the United States is not at all enthusiastic about it.
But in order to put pressure on Ukraine politically, and even more so financially (this is our greatest fear – the dependence of US military and other assistance on our consent to negotiations with the Russian Federation), I am convinced that the states United still do not plan, because they can not. Support for Ukraine is declared in such a way that it does not envisage the possibility of changing sides without a serious political crisis for the ruling party. Recall that even the shameless Trump, demanding from Ukraine certain legal and procedural steps that it would use in the internal political struggle, could not play the game of withholding military aid for more than a few weeks, and then, under the frantic pressure of criticism public in the United States, he was forced to make excuses, play games, “go back”, etc.
However, our partners and friends (both the US and the EU) are not a bottomless barrel of material assistance. We must always take care that the partners have at least the desire not to reduce the level of assistance to Ukraine.
The EU has no geopolitical ambitions, so the expectations of Ukraine from Europeans remain unchanged: reform, fight against corruption, development of the legal system and the rule of law. It is difficult to develop the economy during rocket attacks, but some things can still be done: fend off deceptive and harmful attempts by increasing fiscal discipline and the financial burden on businesses and citizens to raise more revenue. Our government cannot calculate the long-term benefits of maximum business liberalization, so it eagerly counts the losses. But during the war we cannot avoid damage. Therefore, one should be careful not to increase taxes and fees, but to increase those who can pay these taxes and fees in the perspective of one or two years. So far, neither the Ukrainian business community, which honestly and enthusiastically does most of the work to help the army, nor our foreign partners, who honestly fulfill their voluntary obligations to keep our economy afloat, see this.
In order for the US and the EU to see the “light at the end of the tunnel” of the war, we must advance and win victories. This is one of the most difficult and important tasks. Without Ukraine’s leap east and south, the enthusiasm of our partners (and, ultimately, of the Ukrainians themselves) may not last long.
The more successful the actions of the armed forces on the battlefield, the calmer the talks on negotiations with the Russian Federation (perhaps up to the edge of Crimea, but this limit still needs to be reached through Kherson, Zaporozhye, Donetsk and Luhansk regions) .
Another piece of advice from our diplomacy is to try to “fit in” with US foreign policy priorities. Our policy of appeasement and flirting with China does not contribute to this. It is about choosing which side to take: good or bad, good or bad, the problem or the solution to the problem. We have no option to avoid this choice or to make it against the United States. Because the interests of the United States and Ukraine coincide. Lithuanians, Poles, Czechs and most of our ordinary neighbors already understand this well. The probable conflict between the United States and China will almost immediately escalate into a global conflict. And if someone thinks that we can pretend that we are not getting around, I will try to disappoint – think about what the Russian Federation will do first when it realizes that the US and the EU are focusing on a conflict or war with China? And why will this coalition help us if we are not part of it?
The situation does not require too radical steps from us, but the official review of the strategic partnership with China, the review of relations with Taiwan (the most likely promising partner for Ukraine for the development of missile programs and the production of components for technological weapons systems) is something that can be done boldly, without taking into account the completely false argument that China’s military assistance to Russia is conditioned by our position on Taiwan, and not by China’s understanding of the geopolitical weight of a possible Russian defeat in the war with Ukraine.
Oddly, Belarus is also important in terms of containing China. It should be understood that all “Silk Road” ideas are essentially anti-American, because they aim to find ways to circumvent US dominance at sea. The easiest way to disrupt rail communication between China and Europe is to “pull” Belarus out of the corridor. And this task fully satisfies the strategic national security interests of Ukraine. It is important to simply be able to explain this to Americans.
Life clearly demonstrates that we are able to find a way out of the most difficult situations. But some steps should be taken in a timely manner. And then nothing will stop the forward detachments of our Armed Forces on the Crimean Isthmus. No negotiations and no nuclear weapons.
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