Foreigners bet heavily on Trump’s victory in US presidential election prediction markets

The blockchain-based prediction market “Polymarket” has revealed that the owners of four accounts that became a hot topic online by placing large bets on the victory of Republican candidate former President Trump there the US presidential election this year on the 18th is not American. In this photo, Mr. Trump is leaving the plane. Photo taken on the 18th in Michigan, USA. (2024Reuters/Brian Snyder)

NEW YORK (Reuters) – Blockchain-based prediction market Polymarket has placed a big bet on former President Donald Trump, the Republican candidate, winning this year’s U.S. presidential election, lead to four people becoming a hot topic online the account owner is not a US citizen.

According to opinion polls, the presidential election is likely to be a close battle between Trump and the Democratic candidate, Vice President Harris. However, the expected probabilities in the polymarket are different, with Trump well ahead with a 60% chance of winning compared to Harris’ 40%.

Activities surrounding the presidential election were led by four accounts that bet more than $30 million, according to people familiar with the matter. Political experts and social media users have questioned whether some famous Americans are behind the movement.

However, Polymarket does not allow Americans to bet on US elections. Officials acknowledge that Polymarket users are international, and Polymarket verifies all traders and logs in via a VPN to make it difficult to tell where they are getting their money from. -in. Reuters could not determine whether the four accounts were owned by one trader or multiple traders.

Polymarket is working with external experts to analyze this trend, with the size and impact of this commitment. The $ 30 million bet on Trump on Polymarket represents about 1% of the platform’s trading volume related to the presidential election.

Americans are strictly regulated from betting on US elections online.

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Michelle Conlin is a respected reporter at Reuters, where she has covered Americans in debt, the 2016 presidential election, mortgage fraud, the pandemic, pandemic evictions and national breaking news. Her reporting to Reuters has had far-reaching implications, including contributing to new legislation dealing with zombie homes, new rules banning banks from robbing homeowners , and the end of government financing support for Wall Street-backed bonds into single-family homes.