Foreign media reports that arms support to Korea and Ukraine will be a strong variable… Is a proxy war going on?

Photo = AP As it was revealed that North Korea had sent troops to Russia, which is at war with Ukraine, foreign media focused on the response of South Korea, which is confronting North Korea across the cease-fire line. He said that if Korea decides to provide weapons support to Ukraine, it will be a ‘powerful variable’ and that in the worst case, there is a possibility that it could escalate into a ‘proxy war’ between North and South Korea.

On the 25th (local time), the American business media Business Insider said in an article titled ‘South Korea’s intervention in Ukraine will be a powerful variable’, “South Korea, an ally of the United States, has built a powerful arsenal while confronting North Korea over several decades.” He pointed out, “This arms support could bring great change to Ukraine.”

Jeremy Chan, an analyst at Eurasia Group, a U.S. political consulting firm, told this media outlet, “Korea’s weapons have the potential to greatly strengthen Ukraine’s defense and offensive capabilities,” adding, “World-class weapons such as the K2 tank, K9 self-propelled howitzer, and Chunmu multiple rocket launcher are available.” “The systems are on standby, and Seoul has already provided much-needed 155mm artillery shells to Ukraine,” he said.

“South Korea’s support for Ukraine could include providing information on North Korea’s weapons and tactics,” said Ellen Kim, a Korea expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, DC. “We may engage in psychological operations against them,” he said.

Previously, on the 24th, President Yoon Seok-yeol held a press release at the Presidential Office in Yongsan, Seoul and said, “(South Korea) had a general principle of not directly supplying lethal weapons, but we can review that aspect more flexibly depending on the activities of the North Korean military.” “It was stated.

He said, “North Korea’s dispatch of troops to Russia is a provocation that threatens the security of the entire world beyond the Korean Peninsula and Europe, and we will never sit idly by. If North Korea dispatches special forces to the Ukraine war based on Russia-North Korea cooperation, we will step by step.” “We will support Ukraine and review and implement measures necessary for security on the Korean Peninsula,” he said.

President Yoon Seok-yeol is making a joint media announcement between Korea and Poland at the Presidential Office Building in Yongsan, Seoul on the 24th. Photo = Provided by the President’s Office Meanwhile, foreign media outlets presented various interpretations regarding the background of Korea’s cautious approach to this response.

Business Insider pointed out that Korea is hesitant to take an active response, saying, “Korea has long prohibited sending military aid to foreign countries at war,” and added, “President Yoon is not popular domestically, and the Democratic Party is the majority party in the National Assembly.” “It will be difficult to abolish the relevant laws,” he said. “If we want to increase the possibility of South Korea supporting Ukraine, there must come a situation where North Korea’s actions pose a clearer and more immediate threat to South Korea’s national security.”

Citing experts, the media said, “The threat of providing weapons may have more influence on Russia than if Korea directly provided weapons,” and added, “In the worst case scenario, a nuclear war breaks out on the Korean Peninsula and the U.S. and China use military force.” “You could get caught up in a collision,” he said. The analysis is that the possibility that South Korea will also be drawn into war has dramatically increased due to North Korea’s intervention.

On the same day, the British daily Guardian also pointed out in an article titled ‘Why is South Korea afraid of North Korea’s participation in the Ukraine war?’ that the Ukraine war is no longer a distant matter to Korea due to North Korea’s dispatch of troops to Russia.

The media pointed out that the cash that North Korea is expected to receive in return for sending troops to Russia, as well as Russia’s know-how on ballistic missiles and submarines, could strengthen the threat that North Korea is already posing to South Korea.

The Guardian reported, “Koreans are concerned that North Korea’s intervention in the Ukraine war will increase tensions on the border (between South and North Korea), which is already tense.” At the same time, citing an editorial in the Korea Times, a Korean English-language magazine, it was said, “North Korea’s deployment of troops is a signal that the war in Ukraine is no longer a conflict that has little to do with South Korea.”

In addition, there are observations that if Korea’s arms support to Ukraine becomes a reality, the war in Ukraine could in fact spread into a proxy war between North and South Korea.

“South Korea is already indirectly providing military support to Ukraine (by selling artillery shells to Ukraine’s allies), and North Korea is directly helping Russia,” said Ramon Pacheco Pardo, a professor of international relations at King’s College London. “If we deliver lethal weapons directly to Ukraine, it will highlight the fact that ‘two Koreas’ are waging a proxy war,” he said.

Shin Min-kyung, Hankyung.com reporter radio@hankyung.com