The battle between the US presidential candidates – Donald Trump and Joe Biden – is fierce and both have a chance to win the election, said Jānis Kapustāns, a foreign expert and lecturer at Vidzeme University College.
The lecturer pointed out that Tramps is currently particularly active in face-to-face events, actively trying to persuade both his supporters and the so-called fluctuating voters. By contrast, Biden had initially opted for a semi-remote approach, avoiding events for large numbers of people. Now, in recent days, Biden has also been involved in a face-to-face campaign.
Captain said that by an absolute majority, Biden (52%) is far ahead of Trump (44%), but this does not reflect the possible election results due to the electoral system. He mentioned the previous US presidential election, in which Democratic Party candidate Hillary Clinton won an absolute majority, but Trumps won.
“The election result will be decided by the big US states with the most electoral votes. For example, Texas, the largest electoral state with 38 votes, currently has Trump in the lead. “emphasized the lecturer of Vidzeme University College.
The foreign expert also stressed the need to be very careful when interpreting the results of the polls, because four years ago Trump won the US presidential election quite unexpectedly. This suggests that some Americans in the polls did not reveal their true choice by default.
Captain said that Tramp’s supporters believe him very convincingly and that there are many convinced religious defenders among them. In previous elections, Trump was greatly helped by the fact that he positioned himself as a man who was not in power and that he “comes from the sidelines as a simple, albeit rich man.” The question is whether Biden will be helped in the election by the fact that he has previously been the vice president of the United States.
Speaking about how the pre-election debate could affect the results, Kapustāns emphasized that, in the opinion of analysts, they had not played such a significant role. For example, in the debate, Trump pointed out that during his presidency, the US economy had boomed, which, in Captain’s view, is also true.
“A year ago, Trump’s chances of winning the election were very high, but the spread of Covid-19 in the United States has changed dramatically. 100,000 people and the inability to control the spread of the infection reduce Trampa’s chances of winning the election, “said a lecturer at Vidzeme University College.
Speaking about the pre-election campaigns of both US presidential candidates and their effectiveness, Capustan said that a thorough analysis will be possible after the election, but from the sidelines, Trump uses emotionally charged statements that may or may not be true. Biden, on the other hand, uses more argumentative rhetoric, which usually seems much drier and less interesting to people.
Speaking about how the election results will affect further US policy, the lecturer at Vidzeme University College pointed out that there are two different tendencies in this issue, namely, Trump leads the United States to greater isolation, opposes international institutions and also international cooperation.
“Trump is still unpredictable. He can make unexpected decisions that do not come to fruition at all. If Biden is elected, there would be more predictability and a return to conditional ‘old order,'” Capustan said.
Speaking about the issues that will have to be addressed by the next president, the lecturer of Vidzeme University College pointed out that one of them is the issue of the use of interracial and police force. Trump has not succeeded in reducing these contradictions, but in Capuchan’s view, the president should try to call on the parties to a greater dialogue, rather than hate them. Trump’s previous pre-election campaign focused on curbing immigration, which he has been able to reduce but not stop. Democrat Barack Obama, on the other hand, was more in favor of integrating existing illegal immigrants by giving them legal status, but this did not reduce the flow of new immigrants.
One of the challenges for Biden could be keeping his promise that every American will receive a free Covid-19 vaccine when it is available. The foreign expert pointed out that this is an interesting promise, because the United States does not usually take a socialist approach.
“If Baiden succeeds in resolving the Covid-19 crisis, it will help the US economy. In foreign affairs, he promises not to question NATO. He has expressed support for the Baltic states and spoken out against Russian policy compared to Trump, who avoids tougher statements toward Russia,” Kapustan explained.
The lecturer of Vidzeme University College also emphasized that, according to the researchers, it could be more advantageous for Latvia to elect Baiden to the position of the President of the United States. There are fears that in the second term, Trump will not only question NATO’s need, but will also announce that the United States is withdrawing from NATO. The current US president has also announced a reduction in the number of US troops for Europe, which would not benefit Latvia, Kapustāns said.
“Negotiations are currently underway not to return some troops to the United States, but to relocate to Poland and possibly the Baltic states. But, in any case, the number of troops in Europe is planned to be reduced, which reduces security guarantees,” In Latvia, the majority is in favor of Biden.
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