Foreign Exchange Market Watch: Technical Analysis for EUR, GBP and AUD (April 28)

Currency: EUR/USD

Resistance 2: 1.1150

Resistance 1: 1.1076

Spot price: 1.1032

Support bit 1: 1.0977

Support bit 2: 1.0910

On Thursday (April 27), the euro slipped slightly by 0.1% to $1.1024. In the foreign exchange market overnight, the United States released a preliminary estimate of first-quarter gross domestic product (GDP), which showed an annual growth rate of 1.1% from the previous quarter. Growth in the fourth quarter was 2.6%. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast GDP growing at a 2.0 percent rate in the first quarter. Investors, however, focused on the quarterly inflation figure from the GDP report. Core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) prices rose 4.9 percent in the first three months of the year, above the 4.7 percent estimate and above the fourth-quarter figure. “The weaker growth outlook tells us that the Fed will struggle to keep raising rates without overwhelming the economy.” A separate report from the Labor Department on the same day showed initial jobless claims for the week ended April 22 A decrease of 16,000 to a seasonally adjusted 230,000. Economists had expected 248,000 applications in the latest week. The report indicated that the labor market remained tight and also supported expectations for a rate hike next week. Although the data was slightly better However, the boost to the dollar does not seem to be too much. For the euro itself, the euro zone’s economic performance has been a key factor for the euro. Germany raised its growth forecast again on Wednesday, and a survey showed that consumer confidence continued. Rebound. Therefore, the expected probability that the interest rate of the euro will continue to rise is also very high, so the euro is not under great pressure. At present, the euro continues to maintain above the short-term moving average, but the trend of technical indicators is more entangled and the direction is unclear. If the European and American interest rates meeting in May After that, the euro can still remain above 1.10, and the market outlook may be expected to go higher.

Currency: GBP/USD

Resistance 2: 1.2550

Resistance 1: 1.2510

Spot price: 1.2496

Support bit 1: 1.2446

Support bit 2: 1.2357

On Thursday (April 27), the pound was steady against the dollar on Thursday, not far from a 10-month high, closing at 1.2495, up 0.20% on the day. Rate hikes by European and British central banks have been supporting sterling and the euro amid bets that U.S. rates are near their peak. Of course, for the pound/dollar, it depends on the face of the dollar in the short term, but the Bank of England is about to hold a policy meeting, and considering the inflation situation, it is difficult for the central bank to make an easy decision. The market bets that the Bank of England will continue to raise interest rates The probability is not low. Therefore, the pound has also been supported by this factor in the near future to maintain stability. On the daily chart, GBP/USD continues to remain near the short-term moving average, and the trend is still in a sideways trend within a narrow range. Whether the next step can break free from the recent sideways trend pattern depends on the interest rate changes of major European and American central banks in May and the impact of the statement after the interest rate meeting. If the pound breaks through the previous high of 1.2547, the goal of the upward advance is aimed at the area above 1.27. If the bottom falls below the recent strong support area near 1.23, the decline will be extended.

Currency: AUD/USD

Resistance 2: 0.6700

Resistance 1: 0.6660

Spot price: 0.6635

Support bit 1: 0.6600

Support bit 2: 0.6548

The Australian dollar hovered near multi-week lows on Thursday (April 27) as concerns about global economic growth weighed on commodity prices and the market bet that the RBA rate hike cycle is over, putting pressure on the Australian dollar recently. There are many opinions on the rate hike path of the RBA. Some bet that the peak of the Australian dollar interest rate has reached its peak, and some expect that after July and August, as inflation continues to rise, the RBA will continue to pick up the stick of raising interest rates. But the consensus view is that the probability of the RBA raising interest rates in May is only 10%. Therefore, in terms of interest rate hikes, the Australian dollar has suffered a lot recently, so the Australian dollar is expected to continue to be under pressure before the interest rate meetings of central banks next week. On the short-term 4-hour chart, AUD/USD seems to be temporarily supported at 0.6590-0.66. Technical indicators have the desire to rebound and adjust, but the rebound space is expected to be limited. The current 0.6660 above is the initial resistance, further at 0.6700. If it falls below the recent support of 0.6590, it will threaten the level near 0.6500.

Wang Gang, Guangdong Branch, Bank of China
Opinions are personal and do not represent those of the organization