Foreign exchange intervention NB bohuel especially sl

A very rough idea of ​​the volume intervention in the last ones days can be taken from the daily balance NBi.e. from the balance sheet NB publikovan kadch deset dn. Konkrtn se musme reject the item Balances with a bank in the country, i.e. on the deposit volume of ESK banks in NB: prod-li toti NB either to me, to a certain bank (or to a client of any esk bank), crown he will take the payment from this bank as here is the balance of the deposit that this bank has NB.

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There is no other channel: no one (that is, except for employees, public sector and selected foreign institutions) German v NB et, so he is forced with by the central bank trade through any Czech bank.

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On the deposit volume of banks in NB but other factors also have an influence (ke those who want to estimate the volume of this item are welcome intervention). For example if the clients of eskch banks decide dret vce svch finannch aktiv v hotovosti, banky pro n you have to buy this cash from NBa to opt tm, e the balance of their deposit in NB; if the esq public sector or foreign institution (Mezinrodn mnov fondjin central bank, European Commission etc.) s pstupem do NB they will decide the things of the saints crowns pmo na vkladech v NB (namsto na vkladech v eskch banks), then this also leads to a decrease in deposit balances eskch bank v NB. Listed by the influences of my self-loan depending on the situation, work in the opposite direction, i.e. deposit volume bank v NB on the contrary, to increase.

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And so, for example, in the stated flower volume intervention 3,5 mld. K the answer is not 80 billion Kkdeto decline in bank deposits in NB there was only a little rain in May dog 50 billion K.

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During the period and the first twenty days of the period, the volume of bank deposits fell in NB of Dalch 357 mld. K (is good this is how hellish the development at the end of April, because at the end of each quarter the bank deposits go through NB in how many let certain completely pedestrian fluctuations that have nothing to do with foreign exchange interventions, so we are not interested). Even with awareness of the change in the amount of inaccuracy, it is therefore possible to estimate, e NB the intensity of intervention in the last few weeks, she wound up. If she sold St devizov reserve at a similar pace as in the last ten days (i.e. between 20.6. and 20.7.), bank deposits in NB would fall to zero at pt year in May.

That would not be the day of tragedy and intervention they could go on merrily (until they drop to zero aliens reserves NB), you would just bank crown liquidity for the purchase of foreign exchange from NB after all, they still had to speak from themselves NB. The Czech banking system would thus turn from the daily regime of liquidity surplus to the regime of liquidity shortage in which it was in the 1990s.

As I wrote HERE, I have been trying since May NB push the course to stronger values ​​(instead of sharp increase annual rates) I don’t think it’s a good idea: It’s appropriate to keep the exchange rate at a level one crown stronger (according to the previous opinions themselves NB) oekvn shift inflation less than a percentage point per year. This feeling is very important to me on a daily basis high inflation a high inflate the uncertainty here is only weak compared to the costs of this activity.

Nklady nynjch intervenc NB are:

(a) the impossibility of whether the policy NB it will decrease in the next few months on the way zmn annual ratesthe sky is right for the regime intervention (and thus, for example, the uncertainty of the estimate is adequate in the long term annual rates),

(b) deletion of course value information (companiesreal estate and gave akti te nevd, for crown sl or weaken, a intervention they are a new source of uncertainty when predicting what will happen to the exchange rate in the future; piblin fixing the exchange rate at around 24.70 from the beginning of May until the beginning of the exchange rate seemed to be a kind of anchor for the two companies, but during the exchange rate the exchange rate dropped sharply, and moreover, NB will decide or be forced to stop with interventions, the exchange rate will sharply weaken the economy companies relying on this anchor to seriously damage),

(c) the risk (which with reservations NB will grow) of a massive investor flow to the koruna in the event of a market failure on its part is unsustainably overvalued.

Michal Skoepa, analyst esk spoitelny

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