Regional researchers believe that the population in Germany will hardly grow in the coming years – except in some major cities. Which are the boom cities and where is the greatest population decline?
According to a new study, only some German metropolises can expect a rapidly growing number of residents in the coming years. According to an analysis by the Hamburg Gewos Institute for Urban, Regional and Housing Research, Berlin will grow the fastest of the largest cities by 2035. For the capital, the regional researchers expect the population to increase by 6.6 percent. Frankfurt is just behind in the forecast with 6.2 percent.
According to the analysis, Cologne (plus 4.8 percent) and Hamburg (4.7 percent) can also expect significant population growth in the next 15 years. On the other hand, growth will be slowed down in Düsseldorf (plus 0.9 percent), Stuttgart (2.6 percent) and Munich (four percent). In Bavaria’s state capital, “despite brisk new building activity, the housing supply can no longer keep pace with external demand,” according to the Gewos Institute. The surrounding area in particular will therefore develop dynamically.
Only little population growth until 2035
Overall, the researchers expect the population in Germany to grow only slightly by 2035 – by 0.7 percent to 83.7 million people. The corona crisis is currently dampening the immigration of skilled workers from abroad, the trend of recent years. The big cities in particular had grown, in some cases strongly, due to immigrant workers with special qualifications. “Companies are careful with new hires, and travel restrictions have slowed down mobility,” said Gewos managing director Carolin Wandzik.
The regional researchers believe that external migration will only increase again from 2022 onwards, but will then no longer reach the extent of the previous decade. In addition, it can be assumed that in view of the high real estate prices, more people will migrate from the metropolises to the surrounding areas in the future – especially young families. The trend could intensify with the Corona crisis if companies should make working from home a routine in the long term.
Good prospects for Rostock
The fact that the population in Germany is unlikely to grow in the coming years because of the low birth rate and possibly lower immigration, threatens to massively exacerbate the shortage of skilled workers in many industries. According to a study by the economic research institute Prognos for the “Handelsblatt”, the number of workers in Germany will decrease by seven percent by 2030. The reason is that the baby boomers are gradually retiring.
The Prognos experts expect particularly high economic growth in several medium-sized German cities. Rostock, Potsdam, Leipzig, Regensburg and Darmstadt were among the ten metropolitan areas with the best growth prospects in the next ten years, according to the institute. In some of these cities, young company founders form a lively scene.
For Leipzig, the regional researchers also predict a particularly strong increase in population. The Gewos Institute assumes that by 2035 there will be 12.7 percent more people living in the university city than today.
Boom regions in the south
According to the Gewos researchers, the population in eastern Germany as a whole will shrink in the coming years. Declining population numbers or stagnation are also to be expected in large parts of southern Lower Saxony, in northern Hesse, the Saarland, in the Ruhr area and in Schleswig-Holstein.
According to the forecast, almost all of southern Germany can expect to gain residents. With the exception of a few regions in the northeast, the population in Bavaria will grow by up to ten percent in the next 15 years. Boom regions are also large parts of Baden-Württemberg, the Rhine-Neckar and Rhine-Main areas, Hanover and the area around the Volkswagen headquarters in Wolfsburg.
