How’s it going? epidemic continue? How long will the measures and restrictions to reduce social contacts last?
Two questions that Austria deal like no other at the moment. At least to the first one, there is still no clear answer, but at least a careful one forecast: The Ministry of Health released three graphs in the early evening that could give an idea of how the curve of the confirmed Covid 19 cases and the Hospital capacities could develop further in the short term.
According to the ministry, the calculations come from a consortium consisting of experts from Vienna University of Technology/ DEXHELPP / dwh GmbH, the Medical University of Vienna/ Complexity Science Hub Vienna (CSH) and health Austria GmbH. The group therefore creates weekly Forecasts to the course of the Infections and available beds in the hospital area.
The group created the forecast assuming that the measures and restrictions taken remain in force and are respected by the population.
The electronic reporting system is the data basis for the models (EMS) of the federal government, which is fed by the district administrative authorities.
The first graphic shows that the curve of the Infections in the best case scenario, it would already flatten out somewhat and the absolute number of infected people could remain below 15,000 by April 9. However, the number of confirmed cases is likely to increase daily next week as well, in the worst case scenario also significant. The peak of infection numbers is not yet in sight.
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