PEMBROKE PARK, Fla. – A tropical system could form over the southern Gulf next week and threaten the northern Gulf Coast by next weekend.
The early stages of a tropical system that is increasingly likely to form next week in the Gulf of Mexico will begin to slowly consolidate over the western Caribbean this weekend. Forecast models have begun to converge, indicating an increasing threat to the northern Gulf Coast into next weekend, although important details such as future intensity and areas at greatest risk remain uncertain. People from southern Louisiana to the west coast of Florida are advised to closely monitor forecasts over the next week.
While we will continue to monitor trends here in South Florida, forecast models for now suggest that any direct threats next week should remain west of our region.
Slow organization during the first half of next week
As we have discussed in newsletters all week, the system will form within a broad area of rotation and storms stretching from the eastern Pacific to the western Caribbean, known as the Central American Gyre (CAG).
The CAG is firmly established across Central America today, with a marked dip in the upper-level jet stream helping to intensify storms on its eastern side over the western Caribbean this morning. This disorganized region of storms is the formative stage of the system that we will track next week. Unsettled weather will persist and intensify this weekend and early next week as a more concentrated area of low pressure forms around the Yucatan Peninsula by the middle of next week.
Growing threat to the northern Gulf by the end of next week
Overnight, forecast models have begun to align, with our most confident forecast models suggesting an increasing threat to the northern Gulf Coast into next weekend.
While the European model and its ensembles continue to lean toward development over the central Gulf of Mexico, and the GFS model and its scenarios lean toward the northeastern Gulf of Mexico, the distance between the two groups has narrowed considerably since yesterday. Forecast models have slowed the development and progression of the system for next week, now pushing potential impacts into next weekend. This has increased the chances of the system being picked up by a dip in the jet stream heading toward the southern U.S. late next week, which would pull any developing storms into the northern Gulf.
The models agree that high pressure will remain over the southern half of the Florida peninsula, which would block any system from tracking directly toward South Florida. Because tropical storms and hurricanes have a wide area of influence, even peripheral effects can be impactful, so we will continue to monitor the forecasts, but at least for now, the forecast models suggest that whatever develops will stay to the west.
There is still a chance that the system fails to consolidate next week, remains broad and underdeveloped, and becomes trapped in the southern Gulf or moves toward Mexico, but that scenario is looking increasingly unlikely today.
I encourage everyone living along the north-central and northeastern Gulf, including the west coast of Florida, to monitor forecasts more closely next week.
Some areas to watch in the open Atlantic but no threats to land
The National Hurricane Center is monitoring three areas in the open Atlantic for possible development. The two areas over the central Atlantic — the easternmost system being the remnants of Tropical Storm Gordon — have a very narrow window for development this weekend, but they are heading out to sea and do not pose a threat to land.
The most recent area to watch between Africa and the Caribbean islands is associated with a tropical wave that will move from Africa early next week. Although models indicate a possible development of this disturbance by the end of next week, for now it will remain away from land areas.
