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Allan J. Lichtman, the election forecaster, usually hits the mark. But he didn’t foresee Trump’s victory. Did his model fail?
Washington, DC – Donald Trump‘s victory in the US election may have surprised some people here. According to surveys, the Republican would have had no chance in Germany. In the USA too, Trump’s success has apparently caught some people off guard; After all, surveys pointed to a neck-and-neck race right up to the end. Even one of the most accurate election researchers was wrong with his prediction.
Allan Jay Lichtman has correctly predicted the outcome of almost every US election since 1984. Only in the 2000 election did his convictions disagree with the results of the electoral college. At that time, the Democratic candidate Al Gore narrowly lost to the later US President George W. Bush. In Florida, the two candidates were separated by just under 500 votes. The election is still considered controversial today. But with the US election in 2024, his lucky streak seems to have come to an abrupt end.
Forecast Pope relied on Harris in the US election: Lichtman surprised by Trump’s victory
Election researcher Lichtman did not see Donald Trump’s election victory coming. © IMAGO/Jack Hill
When the first results came in on election night and a Trump victory became more and more likely, Lichtman was surprised. “I don’t understand it,” he said, horrified on his YouTube live stream when it became clear that Trump would also win the swing state of Pennsylvania. At the end of the five and a half hour stream, the historian thanks his fans who wrote in the chat that he should continue the format – despite the incorrect forecast. But how could the man referred to by some as the “Nostradamus of elections” because of his good prediction rates be so wrong?
Trump’s victory in the US election ruled out: expert Lichtman’s model failed
Lichtman always makes his predictions using the same methodology: “The Keys to the White House.” Developed in 1981, this system predicts whether the incumbent party’s presidential candidate will win or lose the next election based on 13 criteria that can be either true or false. According to Lichtman’s system, if six or more of these keys are incorrect, the incumbent party loses the election. If fewer than six keys are incorrect, the incumbent party wins.
Prediction model for the US election: These are Lichtman’s 13 keys to the White House:
- Party mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party has more seats in the US House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
- Competition: There is no serious competition for the incumbent party’s nomination.
- Incumbency: The incumbent party’s candidate is the incumbent president.
- Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
- Short-term economics: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
- Long-term economy: Annual real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds the average growth of the two previous terms.
- Policy change: The incumbent government is making major changes to national policy.
- Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
- Scandal: The government is not affected by major scandals.
- Foreign/Military Failure: The government suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
- Foreign/Military Success: The government achieves great success in foreign or military affairs.
- Incumbent Charisma: The incumbent party’s candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
- Challenger’s Charisma: The challenging party’s candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.
Until recently, pollsters had predicted a Harris victory, even after voting was over and counting had begun. It wasn’t until the first trends hit that Lichtman realized his 13-key model wasn’t working. “After a very long night, I’m now taking time out to analyze why I was wrong and what the future holds for America,” Lichtman said on Wednesday (Nov. 6). USA Todaywhen Trump’s second presidency was secured.
Trump’s success in the US election – forecast expert did not see election success coming
“The issue is not that Lichtman pressed the wrong buttons,” Robinder Sachdev of the New Delhi-based think tank Imagindia, who studied at American University, told the Indian broadcaster ETV India. “He used the keys on the wrong lock.” This time the US presidential election was completely different than any other in history. “His model could not have worked this time as it was an unusual situation,” said Sachdev. “The Democrats changed their candidate in the middle of the campaign, which is more or less unprecedented. “If it had been a normal election campaign between Biden and Trump, Lichtman’s keys would have worked.”
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However, there had been criticism of Lichtman’s methodology before – because of the election in 2000. Although he predicted an election victory for Al Gore, it was won by George W. Bush. Opposite the US portal Newsweek the election researcher defended his model in September. According to him, the error was not in his model, but in the events in Florida. Bush won the state by about 500 votes after the Supreme Court stopped a recount, securing enough votes in the Electoral College. “The wrong person was elected president, and it was essentially a stolen election,” Lichtman said. This time the result is clear. (tpn)
