for the intelligence services, an elusive movement – Liberation

While the first processions got underway on Wednesday, a memo from the central territorial intelligence service tries to define the contours of a motley movement and which is divided on its modes of action. –

Is it to be expected that a wave of protest similar to the one that paralyzed Ottawa will sweep over Paris? While various processions of the “Convoy of Freedom”, this anti-health restrictions movement imitating that of Canadian truckers, rush from all over France this Wednesday in the direction of the capital, the intelligence police are on the teeth. According to a memo from the central territorial intelligence service, including Europe 1 and the Parisian echo each other on Wednesday, the agents “have a hard time anticipating and defining this unprecedented movement”, explains the radio. Exactly as at the beginning of the yellow vest movement in the autumn of 2018.

The scale of the mobilization, the political profile of the participants, the peaceful or non-peaceful nature of the planned actions: the police have a bit of a head in the fog. “It is a little early to estimate the importance of this movement launched on social networks, unrelated to unions”, confides a police source to Release. However, the situation is being taken seriously. According to Europe 1, “several meetings have been held on Place Beauvau in recent hours especially on this subject”. And despite a certain vagueness, a few points are beginning to appear more clearly in the eyes of intelligence.

Five trips to Paris

First the route. It appears to the intelligence community that “five routes are announced from all over France with a start of convergence expected from February 9, 2022”. Convoys are due to hit the road from this Wednesday “from the south-east” and the “south-west”, before being joined by others “from the west of France, on Thursday, February 10th”.

This is what we can see on different maps on the social networks where the movement is organized, which actually include five final journeys to Paris at the end of the day on Friday. A five-pointed star that should take shape after intermediate gatherings in Evreux, Chartres, Troyes, Reims, and Rue-Saint-Pierre, near Beauvais.

How big is it?

Will there be people? Territorial intelligence is struggling to find out. As a thermometer, they are especially watching for the number of registered to the pro-movement pages on social networks, like the Facebook group entitled “The freedom convoy”, that “now exceeds 250,000 registrations”, as the police officers write in their note. This Wednesday lunchtime, it even had more than 300,000 members. It remains to be seen how many will switch from virtual to real.

A motley movement

As for the composition of the movement, it is considered very motley, gathering “collectives of opponents of sanitary measures”, soon “yellow vests”, soon «patriot» and of “plotters”, according to the territorial intelligence memo. The police officers note that the “ultra-left movement”, as “ultra-right” does not seem to relay the movement.

Above all, the French “Convoi de la liberté” could be distinguished from its Canadian model by its smaller proportion of truckers. Intelligence agents note that the drivers’ trade union organizations are separating themselves from the movement but also that unlike Canadian drivers, most French truckers have “an employee status” and so “do not directly bear the consequences of rising fuel prices”. As a result, many vans and individual cars could be found alongside heavy goods vehicles, which can make it more difficult for participants to be identified.

Disagreements on the modes of action

Converge, but for what? According to the information, there is no unanimity on the types of actions envisaged, as a result of the decentralized nature of the organization and the varied profile of participants. “There are already disputes between each other in the discussions, which are reminiscent of internal tensions already observed in the yellow vest movement”, write the information in their note.

The police officers point out that some participants propose “a complete blockage” to train “fuel and food supply disruptions”, others of the “clashes with law enforcement”, when some defend a movement “peaceful so as not to be discredited”.

What police response?

In the face of this movement with ill-defined contours, what will be the police response? “A preventive device will be put in place to block access to Île-de-France and Paris on Friday”, comments a source at Release, without going into details. “Large numbers of personnel will be deployed at the tolls surrounding Paris”, Europe 1, which ensures that “the Gendarmerie stands ready to deploy its armored vehicles, in the event that it would be necessary to push cars to a standstill or participate in the maintenance of order.”.

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