For the food security of the Eurasian region –

/View.info/ In April 2023, the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) published an analytical report on the problems of ensuring food security in the Eurasian region.

The report notes that the region has one of the most significant production, resource and export potentials in the world and is generally ensuring its food security. The level of self-satisfaction (from the point of view of the concept of “food independence”) for most products in the Eurasian region exceeds 80-95%. The highest level of self-satisfaction is observed for cereals and oilseeds (respectively 132% and 151%), the lowest – for fruits (65%).

The main guidelines for realizing the agro-industrial potential in the report are: development of agro-logistics and storage systems (formation of UTPS), transport logistics in the eastern and southern directions (including MTS “North – South”), port infrastructure; the accelerated development of the scientific and technological base of agriculture (genetics and selection, seed production and breeding, water-saving technologies, digitization of the agro-industrial complex); import substitution in engineering (rolling stock, commercial fleet, agricultural machinery and equipment); removal of barriers and restrictions between the countries of the Eurasian region; effective regulation and coordinated investment policy in the water-energy complex of Central Asia.

Historically, agriculture is one of the main elements of the economic specialization of Eurasia. The region has a well-established ecosystem of production factors, socio-economic relationships and other basic elements necessary for the functioning of the agro-industrial complex.

480 million hectares of agricultural land are concentrated here, which is 10.1% of all agricultural land on the planet – with a specific population of about 3% of the world’s population. At the same time, the region is characterized by a low coefficient of use of arable land, availability of significant labor resources – over 130 million able-bodied population; and the share of the rural population is 33.1%.

Of great importance is the proximity of promising markets – the largest consumers of food with a total population of more than 3 billion people, mainly China, India, Africa and the Middle East. In the medium term, China is expected to account for 41% and 34% of additional global demand for fish and meat respectively,

Realizing the production, resource and export potential of the Eurasian region will allow feeding 240 million people of its own population and another 360 million in third countries. In the context of rapid growth of the world population and the limited production and resource potential of other macro-regions, the aggregate positions of Eurasian countries in the international food market will significantly increase.

Expanding mutual trade and cooperation between Eurasian countries, maintaining well-functioning mechanisms of international trade are important elements for ensuring food security. Mutual trade between the EAEU countries, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan is growing steadily and reached $15.4 billion in 2021, which is 33.6% of regional agricultural exports.

Over the past 20 years, the volume of mutual export supplies of agricultural products has increased 8.5 times. In perspective, by 2035, the volume of mutual food trade will grow an additional 1.8 times – to $27.1 billion (an increase of $12 billion). Expanding mutual trade will help ensure food availability in the Eurasian region. the development here of mutual trade allows, firstly, to build partnerships within the Union, and secondly, to direct efforts not to achieve food independence, but to increase the economic and physical availability of food, including by expanding supplies from neighboring countries.

A limiting factor for realizing the potential of the region’s agro-industrial complex is transport and logistics limitations. Thus, the loss of own agricultural production due to the underdevelopment of logistics and storage systems in the countries of the Eurasian region reaches 40%. As a result, about 70% of the food that can be produced on the territory of the countries of the Eurasian region is imported from third countries.

The removal of such restrictions requires the availability of accompanying transport infrastructure in the form of roads and railways, seaports, border crossings, wholesale distribution centers, agricultural facilities, etc.

The importance of building a complex integrated unified Eurasian transport framework is increasing. The development of logistics must be based on modern digital technologies. The solution will be the creation of the Eurasian goods distribution network, which will increase the accuracy of planning and reduce delivery time, ensure the safety of products, as well as increase the efficiency of payment services and the efficiency of ordering and returning goods.

Access to promising markets (China, the Middle East, North Africa and India) requires a significant improvement in logistics in the south and east. Given the continued high risks of food insecurity and the significant number of hungry people in India, most countries in Asia, the Middle East and North Africa, the role of MTS North-South in food delivery will increase. It is also necessary to develop new routes through Central Asia and develop new or increase the capacity of existing routes in the direction of China.

The economy of the countries of Central Asia is characterized by a high level of energy intensity and water intensity of the sectors of the economy. The socio-economic development of the countries of Central Asia in the Aral Sea basin has long been carried out in the conditions of depletion of water resources – and this circumstance determines the main vector in the interstate relations of the countries of the region.

The lack of water is largely due to the poor organization of water use in agriculture and industry, as well as to the unsatisfactory state of the water infrastructure and the insufficient funds allocated for its maintenance and development.

Realizing the resource potential of agricultural and food production will create not only positive effects in terms of the tasks of ensuring food security in the Eurasian region and the whole world, but also significant socio-economic effects.

The expansion of agricultural production generates additional production demand for the products of the related sectors, which, increasing the volume of their output (and therefore the costs of current production consumption), transmit this impulse further along the chain of intersectoral connections.

In addition, an increase in output in agriculture and in other sectors directly or indirectly related to agriculture also means an increase in the income of those working in these sectors, as well as in government and business income (in the form of wages, taxes and profits ).

Spending this additional income for consumption and investment purposes will create additional final demand in the economy and correspondingly increase output in the sectors that produce consumer and investment products. This, in turn, should start new chains of intersectoral interactions and lead to an increase in production, value added and other macroeconomic indicators.

Translation: EU

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