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? It’s comforting to know that from an empirical point of view not only the bonuses are superfluous, but also the investment bankers themselves. This is what the business psychologist Daniel Kahneman found out, who was nevertheless awarded the Nobel Prize in 2002 for his inadequate findings. He wondered if a manager’s diligence and skill affect his mutual fund’s annual results.

To do this, he calculated the correlation and found that the influence was almost zero. Fund managers vie to deliver outstanding results every year. However, it was not on them, but on chance that ultimately determined whether the fund performed well or badly.

Here, too, it is easy to justify why that is so. A permanently successful asset manager would have to look to the future with certainty? and not as nebulous as Nostradamus, but very precisely to know which company is successful when and for how long. No one has ever succeeded in doing this.

In other words, investment banks would save an incredible amount of money if they kicked out all of their bonus recipients, and that alone would generate better returns for their customers. Instead, they could simply use a computer program to make investment decisions that select investments at random.

The American business columnist David Roeder of the? Chicago Sun-Times? even went a step further. For some time he had a white-browed Capuchin thrown darts at the stock lists of his newspaper and selected the papers that were hit. The monkey was around a third above the market average. As a bonus, a banana was probably enough in this case.

https://www.deutschlandfunkkultur.de/…e.html?dram:article_id=239450

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