football toilet | Mathematical progression at the World Cup: who goes on, who finishes and what are the criteria for ranking in the group

Teams qualified for round of 16:France, Brazil, Portugal

Naturally, the tournament ends in groups:Qatar, Canada

To begin with, let’s remember that two teams advance for each group of four, the others end up in the league. The last matches of a given group are always played at the same time to avoid tactics as much as possible.

The Dutch (4 points) face Qatar (0) and a draw is enough to qualify. The same goes for Ecuador (4), who will face Senegal (3). Louis van Gaal’s team can continue even if they lose. However, it depends on whether they keep a positive score and how many goals they score. But the scenario is clear: whoever gets three points from the aforementioned trio goes ahead.

All four teams have not yet given up on participation in the round of 16. England (4) need a goal against Wales (1). To keep up with his juice, he doesn’t have to lose to him by four goals, in the case of a really big debacle by three. Iran (3rd) and USA (2nd) will fight directly for promotion. It is not possible for both manchafta to pass. Only a crushing victory over their island rival or a triumph over England combined with a draw between Iran and the United States will lift Wales into the top sixteen.

Another group where nothing is certain. Poland (4) must keep Argentina (3) behind in the duel. Saudi Arabia (3) advances with any victory over Mexico (1). Conversely, if the South Americans triumph, they will overcome Wednesday’s defeat, but must win by the largest possible margin and hope for a matching result between Poland and Argentina (a win for Poland or a poor draw).

France shines at the World Cup, has six points and can look forward to the second round. Australia (3) has a good basis, which goes further in the case of the scalp of Denmark (1). Tunisia must beat France and hope for Denmark to win or draw to move into second place in goals scored. The Danes have to beat Australia by a bigger margin than Tunisia against France.

Probably the most followed group, led by Spain (4). Any points earned against Japan are enough to ensure progress (3). If they lose, Costa Rica (3) cannot play against Germany (1). Costa Rica must score more points than Japan. The Germans are in the most difficult situation. They have to win and believe that Spain will beat the Japanese. Or hope for a draw with rivals, but then coach Hansi Flick’s team needs a triumph by two or more goals. A 7-0 demolition of Costa Rica by footballers from the Iberian peninsula is highly unlikely that Germany will outscore Spain.

Canada is decidedly out of contention (0), which in the last duel will face Morocco (4). One win is enough for Morocco, in case of failure they have to cheer for Croatia (4) to beat Belgium (3). Again, a three-point gain will advance any of the three selections mentioned. Belgium may need a win, but Morocco should lose to Canada by at least a three-goal difference.

According to the bookmakers, the biggest favorite of the tournament, Brazil (6), is still at 100%, and nobody will deny them the continuation of the championship even after the groups. There will still be a fight for second place, Switzerland (3) play against Serbia (1) and must not lose. Cameroon (1) has a duel with Brazil and must win. If Brazil were to fall, the Swiss could still dominate the group.

Thanks to the victory over Uruguay (1), Portugal (6) secured a place in the top sixteen. Second place will be defended by Ghana (3), South Korea awaits the sovereign Europeans. Ghana need only one victory to secure the passage, in case of a draw they will wait for the result of the second duel.

How is placement in core groups determined?

1st criterion – Points earned

The most basic of all rules. Teams are simply ranked according to how many points they have collected in their three group matches.

2nd criterion – Goal difference

While head-to-head is more of a deciding factor in UEFA competitions such as the Champions League, FIFA still considers goal difference to be crucial. The team with more goals scored versus goals conceded (best net total) will therefore be better placed.

3rd criterion – Number of goals scored

If the goal difference is the same, FIFA lists goals scored as the next criterion. The team that has won the most times in the group will simply be placed higher, regardless of how many times they have conceded.

Criterion 4 – Head-to-head matches

It’s only the fourth time that a mutual outcome has come into play. That is, only when none of the previous three criteria would make a decision. In case of a tie, you move on to the next stage.

5th criterion – Statistics on fair play

It may happen that after taking points, scores and other indicators into account, the teams are still perfectly even. Field discipline is next. A yellow card is equivalent to one penalty point, a red card awarded for two yellow three, a straight red card awarded four and a straight red card awarded to a player who already had a yellow also five points.

The team that has the fewest points deducted will be better off. This rule was used in the league, for example, four years ago in Russia, when Japan and Senegal boasted the same result in the group stage after three games played. Both teams also had zero goal difference and scored four goals.

In the end, Japan took the lead, by minus four points, while Senegal minus six. This criterion has been officially used since 2014.

The sixth and last is the crisis option. It would simply be decided by a draw conducted by a member of the World Cup organizing committee who is not from any of the participating countries.

The story recalls the year 1990, when the lottery determined that the second Ireland would arrive in the group, followed by the Netherlands, which however advanced thanks to the fact that some teams from third places also progressed. The Irish took a break, led Romania to the round of 16 and progressed to the quarter-finals. Conversely, the Dutch quarreled with the next world champions, the Germans.