Price growth will be in focus this week. Most important will be the figures from the USA, says Handelsbanken’s chief economist Marius Gonsholt Hov.
LOOKING INTO THE SPOKE BALL: – There is no big macro week here at home, says Marius Gonsholt Hov. That is why the inflation figures from the US are the week’s most important event, he believes. Photo: Adrian NielsenPublished: Published:
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– There is no big macro week here at home, so the figures from the US are probably what will get the most focus, says chief economist at Handelsbanken, Marius Gonsholt Hov, to E24.
Economists expect inflation in the US to moderate slightly from 3.7 to 3.3 per cent, according to the consensus obtained by Bloomberg. Core inflation is expected to remain unchanged at 4.1 per cent.
– The overall price increase is expected to decrease further, and this must be seen in the context of lower energy prices. Core inflation is where it sticks more firmly, says Hov, before continuing:
– Monthly growth in the core of 0.3 per cent is expected. It has fallen a lot from the peak, but you are starting to see some levels that make it more difficult to get the price increase down to 2 per cent, Hov asserts.
Read on E24+
The holiday trip has become much more expensive. Sinful goods have low price growth.
This is happening this week:
Monday 13 November:
Opec’s monthly reportTraffic figures from Avinor
Tuesday 14 November:
Inflation figures from the USA Sweden comes with inflation figures Spanish inflation figures The International Energy Agency (IEA) comes with its monthly report Quarterly figures from Grieg Seafood, Edda Wind and Bergenbio
Wednesday 15 November:
Fresh salmon export figures The trade balance in Norway The trade balance in the eurozone British inflation figures French inflation figures Macro figures from China Quarterly figures from Lerøy Seafood, Austevoll Seafood, Rec Silicon, Nykode Therapeutics, Salomon Evolution, Norbit, Quantafuel and Zaptec
Thursday 16 November
Housing manufacturers present housing statistics for sales and starts in October Overview of oil investments Norges Bank’s expectations survey is presented Quarterly figures from Subsea 7, Prosafe, BW Offshore and BW Energy
Friday 17 November:
The Finanstilsynet issues its decision regarding Norwegian’s acquisition of Widerøe Final inflation figures from the eurozone Quarterly figures from Hafnia, Aurora Eiendom, Statt Torsk and Himalaya ShippingShow more
– Trying to keep the impression up
Hov believes that the US central bank the Federal Reserve has reached the interest rate peak, but at the same time believes that one more increase cannot be ruled out.
At the same time, he is clear that central bank governor Jerome Powell is interested in keeping interest rate expectations high going forward.
– The current interest rate levels are restrictive enough as they are, but interest rate expectations have been talked about more recently, he says.
– Now the Fed is trying to maintain that impression. You don’t want to price in cuts too early. They are probably restless, and during last week’s speech Powell was perceived as more “hawkish” “hawkish” “Hawkish” and “dove” describe opposing views on what interest rates the economic picture requires. A “hawk” supports higher interest rates, while a “dove” wants lower interest rates. than expected by the market, says Hov.
Could be bad news
On Thursday, Norges Bank will publish its survey of expectations for inflation and wage developments for the 4th quarter. This will be important to follow, Hov believes.
Here at home, inflation came in higher than expected at 4.0 per cent last week, which means that many are now expecting another interest rate hike from Norges Bank in December.
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The parties have already raised their wage expectations towards next year, and one can see that wage growth is helping to contribute more directly to price growth, the chief economist points out. This is something Norges Bank will take into account in the calculation going forward.
– We had a cold shower on Friday where core inflation picked up again. The increase in wages will help to keep price inflation up. If the result is that expectations continue to be high, it is bad news for Norges Bank, says Hov.
– But overall I am of the opinion that you are mostly close to the interest rate peak both abroad and here at home, he says.
The results rush continues
The earnings season at Oslo Børs continues in full force this week, even though several of the giants have already been in action. The next few days offer quarterly figures from companies such as Subsea 7, Lerøy Seafood, Grieg Seafood and Statt Torsk.
Last week, the oil price tipped below 80 dollars a barrel for the first time since July, before recovering somewhat at the weekend. The November decline comes in the wake of the price touching 95 dollars a barrel in September.
Several times earlier this year, the oil cartel Opec has cut production to try to drive the price up. On Monday they come with their monthly report.
2023-11-12 20:28:12
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