This weekend, head for the official employment figures for May in the United States, which will be published at 2:30 p.m. These come after a slight disappointment on Thursday, since the ADP firm recorded 128,000 more jobs in the American private sector, against 300,000 estimated by the Bloomberg consensus. The meeting is also eagerly awaited by investors, given the tension prevailing in the labor market. ” By launching a cycle of sustained monetary tightening (…), the Fed aims to calm these tensions” recalls the firm Oddo BHF. ” At 3.6% in April, unemployment fell below the threshold deemed compatible with price stability. In total, the pace of job creations has slowed and should continue in this direction 325,000 expected in May, against 548,000 per month in the first quarter. A negative surprise would heighten recession fears.”
The rate of unemployment is expected to decline slightly by 10 basis points, to 3.5%.
A slowdown in wage growth?
In addition to employment, inflation is at record levels and could fuel an increase in wages, which are already ” on a slope exceeding 5% over one year “, according to analysts at Oddo BHF. The average hourly wage indicator is expected to rise by 0.4% over one month according to the Bloomberg consensus, slightly slowing down from the 0.5% rise recorded in April.
An increase in sales on the Old Continent
In the euro zone, retail sales for the month of April should accelerate, rising by 5.4% against 0.8% in March. Investors will also pay attention to the final services and composite PMI indices which will be published in the morning. They are estimated at 56.3 and 54.9 respectively for the month of May. The Services PMI in the euro zone will also be supplemented by those of France and Germany, expected to reach 58.4 and 56.3 respectively in May.
In the United States, the sentiment in the services sector in April will be communicated at 4:00 p.m., via the index ISM Services. It should continue to fall and return to its February level at 56.5.
In France, operators will be sensitive to the manufacturing dynamic, with industrial production index unveiled at 8:45 a.m. The production volume in France for the month of April should increase by 0.2% (Bloomberg consensus), while it fell by 0.5% the previous month.
Finally, regarding Cac 40 companies, Carrefour will hold its general meeting on Friday morning at its headquarters. This meeting will raise multiple issues, starting with the inflationary context and the shortages of food supplies on certain products, which could put the company in difficulty. The group will have to clarify the situation regarding the rumors of takeovers on Casino, which have emerged in recent weeks.
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R.G.
