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Fluctuations in Mortgage Rates: Recent Changes and Outlook for Homebuyers in 2023

Some major mortgage rates have fallen over the past seven days. Average interest rates for both 15-year fixed-rate mortgages and 30-year fixed-rate mortgages fell. At the same time, average interest rates on 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages increased.

After raising interest rates ten times since March 2022, the Federal Reserve hit the brakes at its June meeting. The central bank’s interest rate will remain in a range of 5.00% to 5.25% for now, although the Fed hasn’t ruled out the possibility of further hikes if inflation doesn’t weaken further.

As long as inflation continues to trend downward, experts could say that a pause in the Fed’s rate hikes could provide some stability in today’s volatile mortgage rate market.


Current mortgage rates for July 2023

Mortgage interest rates change daily. Experts recommend shopping around to make sure you’re getting the lowest price. By entering your information below, you may receive a customized quote from one of CNET’s partner lenders.

For these tariffs: Bankrate, like CNET, is owned by Red Ventures. This tool provides partner rates from lenders that you can use when comparing multiple mortgage rates.


Mortgages hit a 20-year high in late 2022, but now the macro environment is changing again. Interest rates fell significantly in January before rising again in February. Apart from a brief spike towards the end of May, interest rates continue to fluctuate in the 6% to 7% range.

Even if the Fed is on hiatus, mortgage rates will continue to fluctuate daily. That’s because mortgage rates aren’t tied to the federal funds rate in the same way as other products, such as home equity loans and lines of credit (HELOCs). Mortgage rates are sensitive to a variety of economic factors, including inflation, employment and the general economic outlook.

“Mortgage rates will continue to fluctuate week-to-week, but ultimately I think rates will remain in the 6% to 7% range that we’re seeing now,” said Jacob Channel, chief economist at lending marketplace LendingTree. “I don’t expect them to see an increase or even a sustained increase after this meeting,” Channel said.

Overall, inflation remains high but has been falling slowly but steadily every month since its peak in June 2022.

After raising rates dramatically in 2022, the Fed opted for smaller hikes of 25 basis points in its first three meetings of 2023. The decision to hold rates steady on June 14 suggests that inflation is cooling and further rate hikes may no longer be necessary to bring inflation down to the Fed’s 2% target. The central bank is unlikely to cut interest rates anytime soon, but positive signals from the Fed and a slowdown in inflation may alleviate some of the upward pressure on mortgage rates.

“Interest rates are reaching a point where they remain stable. So it’s more of a question of how long it will be before interest rates go back down and when inflation will get back to a point where your dollar is buying a little bit more every month,” said Kevin Williams, founder of Full Life Financial planning.

However, mortgage interest rates are still well above the level of a year ago. Fewer buyers are willing to enter the real estate market, which is driving demand down and causing house prices to fall in some regions, but that’s only part of the equation for real estate affordability.

“In the past interest rates were much higher and people bought and financed houses at those rates. But it has been difficult for people to respond to such a rapid increase in such a short amount of time,” said Daniel Oney, research director at the Texas Real Estate Research Center at Texas A&M University. “Everyone had a goal for how much they needed to save to get into the real estate market, but as interest rates rose, those goals changed too,” he added.

What does this mean for homebuyers this year? Mortgage rates are likely to fall slightly in 2023, although a return to the 2020 and 2021 lows is highly unlikely. However, interest rate volatility could persist for some time. “Expect mortgage rates to fluctuate in the first half of the year, at least until there is a consensus on when the Fed will complete raising rates,” said Greg McBride, CFA and chief financial analyst at Bankrate. McBride expects interest rates to fall more steadily over the course of the year. “30-year fixed-rate mortgage rates will be around 5.25% by the end of the year,” he added.

Instead of worrying about market mortgage rates, homebuyers should focus on what they can control: getting the best possible interest rate for their situation.

“The most important thing is that they find the right home. The second most important thing, of course, is finding the most efficient way to fund it,” said Melissa Cohn, regional vice president of William Raveis Mortgage.

Take steps to improve your credit score and save for a down payment to increase your chances of getting the lowest interest rate available. Also, be sure to compare interest rates and fees from multiple lenders to get the best deal. A look at the Annual Percentage Rate (APR) shows you the total cost of borrowing and helps you compare apples to apples.

30-year fixed-rate mortgages

On a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage, you pay an average of 7.14%, down 17 basis points from seven days ago. (One basis point equals 0.01%.) Thirty-year fixed-rate mortgages are the most commonly used loan term. A 30-year fixed-rate mortgage typically has a higher interest rate than a 15-year fixed-rate mortgage — but also a lower monthly rate. You won’t be able to pay off your house as quickly and will pay more interest over time, but a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is a good option if you want to minimize your monthly payments.

15-year fixed-rate mortgages

The average interest rate on a 15-year fixed-rate mortgage is 6.46%, down 13 basis points from a week ago. With a 15-year fixed-rate mortgage, you will definitely have a higher monthly payment than with a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage, even if the interest rate and loan size are the same. But a 15-year loan is usually a better deal if you can afford the monthly payments. This usually includes getting a lower interest rate, paying off your mortgage faster, and paying less overall interest over the long run.

5/1 variable rate mortgages

A 5/1 adjustable rate mortgage has an average interest rate of 6.21%, up 4 basis points from a week ago. A 5/1 adjustable-rate mortgage typically gives you a lower interest rate (compared to a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage) for the first five years of the mortgage. However, changes in the market may cause your interest rate to increase after that point, as detailed in the terms of your loan. For borrowers planning to sell or refinance their home before interest rates change, an ARM can be a good option. Otherwise, due to market changes, your interest rate may be significantly higher as the interest rate adjusts.

Development of mortgage interest rates

Mortgage rates were historically low for most of 2020 and 2021, but rose steadily throughout 2022. Mortgage rates are now about double what they were a year ago, reflecting continued high inflation. This high inflation prompted the Fed to raise interest rates seven times in 2022. By raising interest rates, the Fed makes money more expensive to borrow and more attractive to hold in savings, dampening demand for goods and services.

Mortgage rates don’t change in step with Fed actions, like interest rates on a home equity loan do, for example. But they react to inflation. As a result, cooling inflation data and positive signals from the Fed will have a greater impact on mortgage rate developments than the recent 25 basis point rate hike.

We use the information Bankrate collects to track mortgage interest rates on a daily basis. This table summarizes the average interest rates offered by lenders in the US:

Current mortgage rates

credit term Today’s course Last week Change
Mortgage rate for 30 years 7,14 % 7,31 % -0,17
15 years fixed rate 6,46 % 6,59 % -0,13
30-year jumbo mortgage rate 7,14 % 7,34 % -0,20
30-year mortgage refinancing rate 7,28 % 7,41 % -0,13

Prices as of July 14, 2023.

How to find personalized mortgage rates

You can get an individual mortgage rate by contacting your local mortgage broker or by using an online calculator. To find the best home mortgage, you need to consider your goals and overall financial situation.

A number of factors — including your down payment, creditworthiness, loan-to-value ratio, and debt-to-income ratio — all affect the interest rate on your mortgage. In general, you want higher credit, higher down payment, lower DTI and lower LTV in order to get a lower interest rate.

In addition to the mortgage rate, other factors such as closing costs, fees, rebate points, and taxes can also affect the cost of your home. You should speak to various lenders — such as local and national banks, credit unions, and online lenders — and a comparison bureau to find the best mortgage loan for you.

How does the loan term affect my mortgage?

When choosing a mortgage, remember to consider the loan term or payment schedule. The most common loan terms are 15 and 30 years, but there are also mortgages with terms of 10, 20 and 40 years. Mortgages are further divided into fixed-rate mortgages and adjustable-rate mortgages. The interest rates on a fixed-rate mortgage are fixed for the duration of the loan. Unlike a fixed-rate mortgage, the interest rates on an adjustable-rate mortgage are only fixed for a specific period of time (usually five, seven, or 10 years). Thereafter, the interest rate fluctuates annually in line with the market interest rate.

One factor to consider when choosing between a fixed rate mortgage and an adjustable rate mortgage is how long you plan to live in your home. Fixed-rate mortgages might be a better solution if you plan on staying in your own home for a long time. Fixed rate mortgages offer greater stability over time compared to adjustable rate mortgages, but adjustable rate mortgages can offer lower interest rates up front. However, you may be able to get a better deal with an adjustable rate mortgage if you only plan to keep your home for a few years. There is no generally applicable best loan term; it all depends on your goals and current financial situation. Make sure you do thorough research and know your own priorities when choosing a mortgage.

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2023-07-14 16:13:57
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