Using mathematics and machine learning, researchers analyzed data from late 2015 to September 2024, incorporating weather conditions, policy options and movement patterns extracted from cell phone data to predict how diseases like influenza might spread. and Covid-19.
The team estimates that by the end of November US laboratories will confirm more than 1,600 new flu cases per day, almost double the number of cases recorded during the same period last year.
For the prediction presented in this report, we applied US data, but I think that if we said we used Canadian data, similar conclusions would be reachedsaid Hao Wang, director of the Interdisciplinary Laboratory of Mathematical Ecology and Epidemiology at the University of Alberta.
Wang, who is also a Tier 1 Canada Research Chair in Mathematical Biosciences, said the team predicted the initial surge in flu cases this year will come a month earlier than last year.
He said he hopes this information will help public health officials.We hope to have some impact on decision makinghe pointed out.
Wang said he and his colleagues have published several papers on their novel approach to forecasting the transmission rate of infectious diseases.
Hao Wang of the University of Alberta and his colleagues have published several papers on their novel approach to forecasting the transmission rate of infectious diseases.
Photo: Provided by Hao Wang
Last year, he and Xiunan Wang, a professor in the Department of Mathematics at the University of Tennessee at Chattanooga, published a paper about it in the peer-reviewed SIAM Journal on Applied Mathematics.
Junling Ma, a professor in the Department of Mathematics and Statistics at the University of Victoria, who was not involved in the University of Alberta team’s research, said he has not examined influenza patterns in recent years, but is familiar with the model and believes it is suitable for capturing the key characteristics of influenza.
I think if it happens, your model should be able to capture the feature of it rising faster and earlier this year, so I would trust your result at this stage.A quote from Junling Ma, professor in the Department of Mathematics and Statistics at the University of Victoria.
He added that public health officials could prepare for an earlier surge in flu cases by making sure they have enough hospital beds available and encouraging people to get flu shots as soon as possible.
According to the federal government, the flu is among the top 10 causes of death in Canada and causes thousands of hospitalizations each year.
Last year, less than a quarter of Albertans received the flu vaccine and the province experienced its deadliest flu season in 15 years.
The provincial government announced Monday that flu vaccine appointments will be available starting Oct. 15.
The Alberta government announced that flu vaccine appointments will be available starting October 15.
Foto: The Canadian Press / Ryan Remiorz
That province’s Health Minister, Adriana LaGrange, said during a news conference that the Alberta government anticipates a flu season very similar to last year.
There are procedures in place and policies in place to ensure we have the capacity we needsaid.
André Gagnon, a spokesman for the Public Health Agency of Canada, said in a statement that it is difficult to predict how the flu will behave, but the flu season tends to start in mid-November, peak in late December or February and finish at the end of May.
Gagnon said the Canadian public health agency does not use artificial intelligence in its forecasts to predict transmission rates.
There is currently no indication that flu cases are increasing sooner than expected, but the Public Health Agency of Canada will continue to monitor and report weeklysaid.
Ghada Haggag, a pharmacist who owns and operates All Care Pharmacy in the Capilano neighborhood of the city of Edmonton, said there has been strong demand for flu and Covid-19 vaccines this year, much more than in 2023.
He said people may have been experiencing vaccine fatigue last year, but many older adults in the area have made two vaccination appointments this fall: one for Covid-19 and the flu and the other for respiratory syncytial virus ( VRS).
RSV vaccines are given two weeks before or after Covid-19 and flu vaccines.
Fuentes: CBC / M. Cummings
Adaptation: RCI / R. Valencia
