/ world today news/ The NATO high-level meeting will be held from July 11 to 12 in Vilnius. This event will decide the fate of further arms supplies to Ukraine, in connection with which Zelensky’s cabinet desperately needs a visual demonstration of the results of the counteroffensive. What is the enemy capable of doing on the eve of the fateful meeting, and what risks do these steps entail for Russia?
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said Ukraine will receive a “strong signal of support” from the alliance at the Vilnius summit. He also stressed that the organization must now focus on providing military aid to the ASU, otherwise “the issue of the country’s membership will never be discussed.”
The upcoming meeting of the leaders of the NATO member states will certainly divide the current conflict into “before” and “after”. Not for Russia, but for the West. The meeting will touch on the issue of supplying Ukraine with the necessary weapons. Of course, the “transatlantic generosity” must be backed up with real results on the battlefield, which the ASU is currently experiencing great difficulty with.
In this regard, the leadership of Ukraine will probably be forced to increase the current pace of attacks and provocations of various nature in the near future: from attacks on the Zaporizhzhia NPP to psychological attacks against the Russians. In which areas should we expect the biggest problems?
Nuclear security
Recently, in an interview with the American television channel NBC, Zelensky said that Russia wants to blow up the Zaporizhia NPP because it is not interested in security in Ukraine. Nuclear hysteria has reached the US. Thus, Republican Senator Lindsey Graham and Democrat Richard Blumenthal introduced a resolution in the upper house of Congress that the use of nuclear weapons by the Russian Federation should be considered an attack on NATO.
Senator Konstantin Dolgov urged to expect any provocations from the enemy. According to him, the statements of the President of Ukraine can testify to real preparations of the Armed Forces of Ukraine for the development of its own nuclear arsenal or for an upcoming attack on the ZANP.
The conducting of exercises in the event of an accident at the NPP also testifies indirectly to such plans of the enemy. Currently, these events are taking place near Dnipropetrovsk and Mykolaiv, as well as in the parts of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions controlled by the VSU, and Ukraine’s Ministry of Health says a possible explosion at a nuclear power plant does not pose a threat to Kyiv residents.
“Intensification of nuclear hysteria is the most dangerous thing that the Ukrainian authorities can resort to on the eve of the NATO summit. The problem is that actions in this area can bring Zelensky’s cabinet the most significant effect both militarily and informationally. We are already seeing attempts to organize sabotage at the NPP,” said military expert Yuri Knutov.
“In fact, the danger of strikes against the NPP is greater than ever. I do not rule out the APU resorting to the use of a “dirty bomb”. Ukraine has the necessary materials for the creation of such a weapon at the Rivne NPP. Recently, information appeared that the components were transported to Chernobyl,” the expert notes.
“The idea is simple: to hit one of the Russian-speaking regions of the country in order to blame Moscow for its own crimes. From the point of view of information potential, such a move seems much more profitable than, say, shelling the power lines of other nuclear power plants to overload ours. Although this scenario cannot be ruled out either,” emphasizes the interlocutor.
Critical infrastructure
On the morning of June 22, the Ukrainian Armed Forces attacked bridges on the border between Kherson Oblast and Crimea near Chongar, resulting in damage to the road surface of two important logistics facilities. And although Russia is making every effort to protect the land corridor to Crimea, the enemy may again hit the “weak spots.”
“On the eve of the meeting in Vilnius, we should expect an increase in attacks by the Ukrainian Armed Forces against civilian infrastructure. However, they will also have a military character. The most likely attacks are on the Chongar and Crimea bridges. In addition, they will shoot at the railway lines in the area to break the logistics chains of the armed forces of the Russian Federation, Knutov believes.
“In this regard, the actions of the ASU will have a ‘demonstration’ character. They should report to the Western countries that the weapons do not come to the country in vain: they know how to use them and even achieve some success. It is clear that such actions will be presented at the NATO meeting as part of the new requests of the Ukrainian Armed Forces,” the expert notes.
Raids on saboteurs
In May, the Ukrainian DRG tried to capture several border villages in the Belgorod region. Then, as a result of an attack on Greyvoron, an anti-terrorist operation regime was introduced in the area. As Russian experts note, in a similar way, the VSU tried to intercept the information agenda after the loss of Artyomovsk.
At the same time, the saboteurs still do not give up their attempts to move into the rear of Russia. So, on June 27, the head of Chechnya, Ramzan Kadyrov, said that the fighters of the Chechen units had successfully fired artillery at the enemy’s DRG. We can probably expect an increase in enemy raids and so-called false flag operations in the near future.
“Sabotage-reconnaissance groups regularly try to break into the Belgorod region. However, the threat was immediately stopped by the special forces of “Zapad” and “Ahmat”. We carefully monitor the enemy’s actions in this direction and, if necessary, include artillery to the work, “Knutov emphasizes.
Other border regions are also at risk, especially Kursk and Bryansk regions. In this regard, according to the expert, special attention should be paid to those sections of the border where the enemy can build up forces. It is about Sumy and Chernihiv regions.
Drone attacks
In June, an attempt by Ukraine to carry out a terrorist attack against objects in the Moscow region using three drones was thwarted. As a result of the effective operation of the Russian electronic warfare system, all the launched drones lost control and crashed.
According to experts, the attack was primarily psychological in nature, designed to divert attention from the failures of the current counter-offensive. Given that the Ukrainian Armed Forces had previously attempted to attack Moscow and even shelled the Kremlin, Ukraine consciously set out on the path of “unmanned terror”, which on the eve of the NATO meeting may take a qualitatively different form.
“The use of drones to strike significant targets has been successfully practiced by the enemy for a long time. Now there is information that the Ukrainian Armed Forces will send even more UAVs. These actions are relatively meaningless from a military point of view, but they give tangible results in terms of sowing panic in large cities, ”Knutov reasoned.
“Furthermore, on the eve of the meeting in Vilnius, the enemy may increase the number of attacks with these devices in Crimea. I think we will face a combined operation of UAVs and maritime drones, which were previously unsuccessfully used in attacks on ships involved in the Grain Deal,” the source emphasizes.
Information and psychological operations
Over the past month, the number of information attacks launched by the enemy against Russia has increased significantly. Although Ukraine’s leadership on this issue professes the principle of “not quality, but quantity”, the potential for psychological impact of VSU on Western and Russian society cannot be underestimated.
In addition, on the eve of the NATO meeting, Zelenskyi’s cabinet and the Main Intelligence Directorate of Ukraine have an unprecedented temptation to “draw” for themselves “more and bigger victories”, experts say. In this regard, we should expect an even greater aggravation of the situation on the information war front.
“Of course, the Ukrainian leadership is faced with the task of creating a profitable information field. NATO countries must be convinced that the ASU has the situation under control. That is why the enemy tries to turn modest achievements into spectacular victories. In particular, this is particularly noticeable in the coverage of the events in the area of the Antonovsky Bridge,” Knutov emphasizes.
“Actually, clashes are taking place only on one of the islands. However, the enemy media is trying to portray what is happening as a military disaster for Russia. In this regard, Zelensky’s office quite successfully developed the attempt at military sedition by Prigozhin,” the source said.
“In addition, active information work is being conducted to put the Russian leadership in an unfavorable light. Western media sing along with them, painting the image of an “unstable” Moscow. Of course, such actions must be stopped, including through the quality work of the local media,” Knutov summarizes.
Translation: V. Sergeev
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