The war between Israel and Hamas is not taking place in a vacuum. Many other countries are involved, diplomatically or even militarily. These are five of those other players: from troublemaker Iran and ‘failure state’ Lebanon, to a divided EU.
Lebanon: Hezbollah has more striking power than ‘real’ army
Israel’s northern neighbor is not on the brink of the abyss, but has been bouncing downward for some time. The economy imploded in 2019 and has been in freefall ever since. The country currently has no government or president, because the political parties cannot agree on this among themselves. The label failed state is getting closer for Lebanon.
Lebanese politics is divided on sectarian lines. This means that politicians from eighteen different religious movements (such as Sunni and Shia Muslims and Maronite Christians) try to jointly govern the country and at the same time form a kind of alternative government for their own supporters.
The Shia Hezbollah is by far the most influential of the Lebanese sects, with a large following, especially in the south of the country. It is not only a political party, but also a militant movement with a military strength many times greater than that of the formal Lebanese armed forces. Hezbollah is strongly supported by Iran and has been fighting Israel for almost half a century.
Hezbollah threatens an offensive against Israel if it invades the Gaza Strip. For Israel, that would mean a war on two fronts, a frightening prospect. There is already fighting around the border between Israel and Lebanon. In terms of scale, this still falls under the heading of skirmishes, but they are becoming increasingly intense.
Other Lebanese population groups are not looking forward to war with Israel, but cannot do anything to keep Hezbollah in check.
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Why Israel is concerned about possible war with Hezbollah
Iran: the big troublemaker
The religious dictatorship in Iran has brought the country into international isolation. That does not mean that Tehran cannot assert itself in the region: Iran has become a formidable troublemaker. For example, it provides a significant number of militant groups with financial, moral and military support.
Iran is involved in a drawn-out battle with Saudi Arabia over who can call itself the regional superpower. This is being fought in Yemen, where a Saudi-backed government is fighting the Iranian-backed Houthi rebels.
The relationship with Israel is particularly hostile: together with the US, it is Tehran’s arch enemy. The Iranian people have great sympathy for the Palestinian cause.
Israel regularly carries out bombings, sabotage and assassinations to hinder Iran’s nuclear weapons program. It sees an Iran with such weapons as a direct threat to its own survival.
There is as yet no evidence that Iran was directly involved in the Hamas attacks on October 7. The Iranian regime welcomes this and encourages Muslims to fight Israel. If Iran becomes more involved in the Gaza conflict, it would be a dangerous escalation. For the time being, Tehran seems to have little interest in that. Iran has the military capacity to be very annoying, but ultimately it cannot compete with Israel and the US. Indirect interference is much safer.
United States: friend of Israel, who sometimes puts on the brakes
The great and faithful friend of Israel. Washington provides Israel with (military) support and political cover (for example in the UN Security Council).
Although American support for Israel is almost proverbial, that does not mean that the US always lets its ally do its thing. Washington regularly slams on the brakes. For example, during the Israeli-Lebanese war in 2006, the US was one of the countries that enforced a ceasefire, while Israel was reluctant to do so.
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The US has deployed two aircraft carriers and a large number of accompanying naval vessels to the eastern Mediterranean to deter parties such as Lebanese Hezbollah from launching a full-scale attack on Israel. On the diplomatic level, the Americans are also doing their best to prevent further escalation of the war.
The US government says Israel has every right to defend itself and neutralize the threat from Hamas. At the same time, Washington insists that Israel respect international law of war and try to limit the number of civilian casualties. President Joe Biden warned Israelis not to make the same mistakes as Americans after the attacks on September 11, 2001. “As you feel that frenzy, don’t let it consume you,” he said.
On the world stage, the US prefers to focus on China, which it considers its most dangerous competitor. But the war in Ukraine and the Gaza war are forcing Washington to keep its focus on Europe and the Middle East.
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This is what Israeli soldiers do and test when they briefly invade Gaza
European Union: Member States are divided, but want to provide help
Within the EU, foreign policy is mainly up to the member states themselves. They are divided over the war between Israel and Hamas. Countries such as Germany, Austria and Hungary are clearly in the Israeli camp, while in Ireland and Spain there is also a lot of sympathy for the Palestinian cause.
There is therefore little unity in the EU response to the crisis. For example, the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, received a lot of criticism from her own home when she emphasized that country’s right to self-defense during a visit to Israel, without saying that it must adhere to international laws of war. .
The leaders of EU member states are currently discussing a possible call for a ceasefire or a so-called humanitarian pause to get aid supplies to the Gaza Strip. The question is whether they will be able to align their divergent visions.
Saudi Arabia: was just moving towards a bond with Israel
Saudi Arabia does not recognize Israel’s existence, but in recent years there has been a thaw between the two countries. Before the Hamas attacks, it seemed that diplomatic relations would be normalized, as they say. That may have been one of the reasons for Hamas to carry out the attacks. It is not beneficial for that group if Israel has access to other countries in the region.
The competition with Iran is also an important factor in Saudi foreign policy. The fact that Saudi Arabia is Sunni and Iran is Shia further strains the relationship.
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has an interest in better ties with Israel. He wants to reform his country’s economy so that it is less dependent on oil, and is pursuing all kinds of ambitious and technically demanding initiatives. Access to Israel’s solid economy and strong tech sector can help.
At the same time, Bin Salman must take into account anti-Israeli and pro-Palestinian sentiments in his country, even though he is firmly in the saddle as an authoritarian ruler. The crown prince told US President Joe Biden on Wednesday that talks on better relations with Israel could resume when the war is over.
The conflict explained
2023-10-26 16:42:00
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