Fitch Solutions predicts the largest global rice shortfall in two decades in 2023, causing decade-high prices, due to weather challenges and the Ukraine conflict.

Rice production is set to experience its largest shortfall in two decades, leading to decade-high rice prices, according to Fitch Solutions. There are several contributing factors including the ongoing war in Ukraine, weather problems in rice-producing economies such as China and Pakistan, and rice being substituted for other grains due to their surging prices. The deficit will impact major rice importers such as Indonesia, the Philippines, Malaysia, African countries and others already suffering from high domestic food price inflation such as Pakistan, Turkey, Syria and some African countries. In addition, many countries will need to draw down their domestic stockpiles. Fitch Solutions estimates that the global rice market will return to “an almost balanced position in 2023/24,” leading to potentially lower rice prices in 2024. However, rice production remains at the mercy of weather conditions.