What you should know
- Residents of major cities along the I-95 corridor are keeping their hopes high for snow this weekend with the arrival of the season’s first winter storm.
- According to data from the National Meteorological Service, last season the deficit of this type of precipitation was marked in this part of the country.
- As mentioned in our editions and previous article, the storm is already on the west coast of the country, leaving winter precipitation activity.
Residents of major cities along the I-95 corridor are keeping their hopes high for snow this weekend with the arrival of the season’s first winter storm. According to data from the National Meteorological Service, last season the deficit of this type of precipitation was marked in this part of the country.
However, although it is not ruled out that the metropolitan area of our area may receive some snow, the greatest possibility of having greater accumulations is concentrated towards the interior and north of the tri-state region.
On the other hand, the forecast of intense snow bands in winter storms continues to be a challenge for the meteorological community, especially more than 72 hours from the forecast, when the uncertainty in the final trajectory and intensity of the system can still be high:
(Figure 1: Snow accumulations in major cities along I-95 during the past 2022-2023 winter season, source WNJU)
(Figure 2: Dominant weekend precipitation types, source WNJU)
(Figure 3: Winter Storm Forecasting Methodology, source WNJU)
Next, we analyze what we know so far and what we could expect in the coming hours:
As mentioned in our editions and previous article, the storm is already on the west coast of the country, leaving winter precipitation activity.
This energy will move towards the center and south during the next few hours.
From Saturday afternoon to Sunday the storm would be in the vicinity of our tri-state area.
(Figure 4: Current weather analysis, source WNJU)
(Figure 5: Weather scenario for Friday, source WNJU)
(Figure 6: Weather scenario for next weekend, source WNJU)
Uncertainty in the trajectory
Computer models, despite being sophisticated today, even 72 hours after an event of this type have errors when calculating the final trajectory of the system. On average, these variations range around 150 miles of error, so small changes in that final trajectory would imply different snow accumulations in our area.
(Figure 7: Average error of atmospheric models for 72 hours of forecast, source WNJU)
Given this situation, there are two fundamental scenarios:
Scenario 1: The storm is moving east of 40 N, 70 W, the possibility of snow in the metro area and Long Island is much greater.
(Figure 8: Scenario 1 in the storm track, source WNJU)
Scenario 2: The storm is moving west of 40 N, 70 W (closer to our coasts), the possibility of more snow is to the west and north, mixing in the metro area and coasts, strong winds.
(Figure 9: Scenario 2 in the storm track, source WNJU)
The latter, according to our in-depth analysis, could be occurring from Saturday in the late afternoon and early evening hours, until the second half of Sunday.
Sea surface temperature:
On our coasts, the sea surface temperature is still warm and relatively warm waters predominate for this time of year. This factor, together with the circulation of winds from the low pressure area, could encourage the occurrence of winter mixing in coastal areas and metro areas with the contribution of slightly warmer air on the surface.
(Figure 10: Sea surface temperature anomalies, source WNJU)
snow drifts
This is the first official forecast from the team at The Authority in Time, which will be adjusted as we approach the weekend and considering that the next 24-48 hours will be crucial to finalize details in the final accumulated results.
(Figure 11: Official forecast of snow accumulations, source WNJU)
In summary, the most important thing:
(Figure 12: The most important thing to know, source WNJU)
After this storm over the weekend, there is a possibility of another system impacting the region by the middle of next week, at the moment it would be a rainy and windy event.
Stay informed in all our editions and platforms, with our The Authority in Weather team, certified by WeatherRate with the most accurate forecast, is the entire tri-state area.
(Figure 13: Extended forecast, source WNJU)
2024-01-04 11:18:17
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