Van Dissel discussed during a technical briefing in the House of Representatives figures available from South Africa, the United Kingdom and Denmark. There are still many uncertainties, but it can still be seen – cautiously – to what extent people end up in hospital as a result of infection with the omikron variant.
A study by the Danish health service among 125,000 people who experienced a corona infection before the arrival of the omikron variant, 98.4 percent did not come to hospital. 1.6 percent yes.
0.6 percent
Until now, the percentage has been lower for the omikron variant. There are figures of 18,827 people who have become infected with omikron. 99.4 percent did not end up in hospital, 0.6 percent did.
According to Van Dissel, those numbers don’t say much. “Remember that there is a great peak in young people between 20 and 30 years old. You don’t expect hospital admissions from them at all. We will have to wait and see how it goes.”
The RIVM boss says that there have been two ‘super spreading events’ in the country, where only young people were present. For example, there was a concert with 1600 visitors, where there were many infections. A student Christmas party also became a source of fire. From there, omikron quickly spread further.
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Similar figures also come from South Africa, although they do not come from the health service. A large insurer reports that the risk of ending up in hospital due to the omikron variant is 29 percent lower compared to the risk in the first corona wave in mid-2020.
“That was a wave with a different type of virus. Many more people have now been vaccinated. Even if it were 30 percent less, with a high number of infections you would still be very high in hospital admissions.”
Rise in London
In addition, there are figures from the United Kingdom. In London, where omikron is dominant, according to Van Dissel ‘a sweep upwards’ can be seen. “That is not immediately reassuring.”
“There too, it is now mainly young people between 20 and 40 who receive omikron. That is a group that is already very protected by nature against hospital admissions.” So the big question is what omikron will do if more elderly and vulnerable people become infected.
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Omikron is on the rise in the Netherlands. The largest increase is in Amsterdam: the variant already causes a slightly larger share of the infections there, says Van Dissel. Omikron is predicted to be dominant throughout the Netherlands before January. The delta variant is then displaced.
In all models that say something about the number of hospital admissions in the Netherlands, RIVM assumes that omikron is just as sickening as the Delta variant.
Booster needed
Van Dissel emphasized the importance of the booster shot: the corona vaccines are expected to protect about four to five times less against infection without a booster. According to Van Dissel, 85 percent of the people who became infected with the omikron variant have been fully vaccinated.
In the delta variant this was 62 percent. People who have previously had corona are also less protected against the omikron variant, according to Van Dissel.
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Of the group that contracted the omikron variant, almost 3 percent had previously had corona. In the delta variant this was slightly more than 1 percent.
Although a second shot provides reasonable protection against omikron in the short term, the effectiveness is expected to decrease quickly, says Van Dissel. A booster shot can ‘upgrade’ the protection against the omikron variant. The effectiveness of the booster will also decrease over time, but less quickly, Van Dissel expects.
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