First Alert Weather: Red Alert in place Sunday for flood risk & strong winds

Looking Ahead

A strong storm system is still poised to move into the region from Sunday afternoon into Monday morning. This system has already produced damaging and deadly tornadoes in the Mid-South and will bring a plethora of hazardous conditions to our area as well. We are in the calm before the storm right now though, after a gorgeous and mild December day.

Saturday night, clouds will slowly rapidly increase, along with low level moisture. This will lead to the development of fog in some areas. A stray shower is even possible. Lows will be on the mild side, with mostly mid to upper 40s. Those are actually where our average highs should be.

Alerts & Watches

A Red Alert remains in place from late afternoon on Sunday through the morning hours of Monday. A Yellow Alert is in place to start Sunday.

A Flood Watch goes into effect from 1 p.m. Sunday until 4 p.m. Monday. This includes the entire region.

A High Wind Watch begins 4 p.m. Sunday and lasts through 6 a.m. Monday. pnly for Brooklyn, Queens, Nassau and Suffolk counties.

Timing It Out & Breaking It Down

8 a.m. – 4 p.m. Sunday: A very potent cold front begins to charge into the region. Rain starts to develop ahead of the front. An initial batch of moderate showers pivots through, followed by a break, and then subsequent waves of showers. As rain expands in coverage and increases in intensity, winds will also be increasing, gusting between 20-40 mph. Temperatures will surge into the 60s.

4 p.m. Sunday – 6 a.m. Monday: This is the main event window. Throughout this time frame, heavy rain and strong winds will ramp up. A few embedded thunderstorms are even possible.

Freshwater flooding is very possible, but so too is coastal flooding and beach erosion, as onshore winds pile waves along the coast. This would be particularly bad during high tide cycles, and high tides will be running higher than average, due to the proximity of the New Moon on Dec. 12.

Winds may reach tropical storm force at times, with gusts between 40-60 mph. Coastal areas, especially on Long Island, are likely to see the highest gusts.

Then, as colder air filters in, our far northwestern suburbs start to see some snow. Temperatures sharply fall into the 30s and 40s with the passage of the front.

Rest of Monday: Though the heaviest rain will already be over for most areas, some lingering heavy bands are possible for eastern Long Island early.

As more cold air funnels in, all of the northwestern suburbs could see snow between the hours of 6-10 a.m. Accumulations will generally be in the coating to 3-inch range.

Final rain totals will average between 2-3 inches, with some pockets of higher totals, which are likely to be for areas south and east of the city.

Otherwise, the strong winds will continue all day, gusting between 25-40 mph. Highs in the low to mid 40s.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny and cool. Highs in the mid to upper 40s. The winds will still linger a bit though, gusting up to 25 mph at times.