– Ammo, ammo and more ammo.
That was the clear plea from Ukraine’s Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov when he arrived at the EU Defense Ministers’ Meeting.
– Our priority is air defense systems, but also ammunition, ammunition and more ammunition, said Reznikov.
Ukraine’s need for ammunition
The defense ministers of the EU countries met in Stockholm on Wednesday to discuss how they can meet Ukraine’s needs. NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg asked allies to step up their support for Ukraine, but also to fill their own weapons stockpiles.
Ukraine fires an estimated 6,000 artillery shells each day, according to Western intelligence figures, while Russia fires about 20,000 shells per day. This corresponds to the entire combined European production for one month.
– Ukraine has a constant need for artillery shells, and consumption is clearly higher than production. They want the West to deliver 8-10,000 grenades every day so that they can maintain the intensity against the Russians, says Tom Røseth, associate professor and principal lecturer in intelligence at the Norwegian Defense College.
Before the war in Ukraine, Europe’s annual production was 300,000 in many types of ammunition including artillery shells, while in the USA it was produced just under 150,000 a year.
– Many countries are working to increase production, and the USA is the country that can do this to the greatest extent as it has a well-developed arms industry. Other countries have also decided to increase production, but it is urgent to get started, says Røseth.
Increases production
In recent months, several new contracts have been written to increase the production of artillery ammunition, but so far little of this has reached war-torn Ukraine.
Putin’s strategic dilemma
– Several countries have made commitments, but real contracts and money must be on the table before production is operational. It is urgent to get this in place, says Røseth.
Many countries have already given a lot of ammunition and decided that they will increase production. In January, Finance Minister Trygve Slagsvold Vedum (Sp) and Defense Minister Bjørn Arild Gram (Sp) announced that the government would buy artillery ammunition for NOK 2.6 billion from Nammo.
The agreement means that Nammo can produce 25,000 long-range precision artillery shells. The grenade purchase will go towards Norway’s military preparedness, but also to be able to maintain support for Ukraine.
– Must maintain its national preparedness
The news came shortly after it became known that Norway is donating 10,000 artillery shells to Ukraine’s defense against Russia’s attack on the country.
– Many have given, but everyone has their pain threshold in relation to maintaining their national preparedness or concerns about replenishment. How much the various countries have given or have in stock is classified information that is not released as it could, for example, expose a country’s vulnerability, says Tom Røseth.
– We see that both Ukraine and Russia fire fewer grenades and rockets now than earlier in the war. The reason for this is that nobody wants to risk running out of ammunition, they want to have a stock of a certain size as a contingency, he says.
A battle over logistics and production
Several sources that Dagbladet has spoken to believe that this is very visible in Bakhmut, where both parties must prioritize how much they will spend.
– In a long-term war like this, there is a battle for logistics and the production of ammunition, weapons and other material. The test is who is most persistent in the long term, says Røseth.
– Will the question of ammunition be of decisive importance for the course of the war?
– Yes, of course this is extremely important. At the beginning of the war, the Ukrainians had less access to weapons and ammunition than the Russians, which was compensated when they received the Himars system (artillery system). If they do not get enough weapons and artillery, Russia will be able to exploit this to its advantage, says Røseth.
I think the wrong man has been appointed
Another important factor is how much artillery Ukraine has in stock, and how much they are actually capable of producing themselves.
– Ukraine does not want to reveal its stockpile or production of ammunition, other than that they consume far more than they produce. They are also very exposed to Russian missiles against their own defense industry, which creates uncertainty about production capacity and the risk of this falling away, says Tom Røseth to Dagbladet.
Europe’s largest ammunition warehouse
Russia has large quantities of ammunition stored in the breakaway republic of Transnistria. Several have described this as Europe’s largest ammunition stockpile, but it will be very demanding for the Russians to gain access to these.
– I am a little unsure whether it is a fully comprehensive description that they have Europe’s largest ammunition stockpile. There is some conflicting information about how large the stockpile is, and it is also not known how old this ammunition is. It comes from the Soviet era, which could mean that it is between 30 and 60 years old, says Arne Bård Dalhaug.
Ukrainian air defense
The ammunition is very heavy and the only way to move it out of Transnistria is by air.
– One can think of some other solutions, but they have no possibility of shipping this out of Moldova. There are no bridge systems, and even if they had a railway, this would be within range of what Ukrainian air defenses would be able to shoot down with missiles.
That is the opinion of retired lieutenant general Arne Bård Dalhaug, former chief of the Defense Staff.
Reacts: – Cut off
Putin could be interested in getting this ammunition out if some of it is usable, Dalhaug believes. But then he has a big practical problem with getting it out of the country.
– He cannot transport it through a government-run Moldova, and the Russians cannot fly over Ukrainian territory. Strictly speaking, there is very little chance of anyone getting this out of the country. It is clearly a headache for Putin, says Arne Bård Dalhaug to Dagbladet.
There is great uncertainty about how much weapons and ammunition Russia has stored.
Attacks with field spades
As recently as this week, British intelligence claimed that Russian reserve forces are fighting with field shovels due to a lack of ammunition.
The claim originates from the British Ministry of Defense daily intelligence updatewhere they are asked to attack Ukrainian positions with shovels, according to NTB.
Yesterday, the message came from Lithuanian military intelligence that Russia has enough resources to continue the war in Ukraine for two years.
– The resources that Russia currently has are enough to continue the war at the current level for two years, says the head of Lithuania’s military intelligence, Elegijus Paulavicius.
He says that the support for Russia’s military from countries such as Iran and North Korea will also be decisive for how long the war can last.
