/ world today news/ The command of the Joint Group of Forces of Russia is changing tactics in 2024. This was reported by several influential American publications, including “Financial Times” and “CNN.
Russian troops will conduct two types of offensive operations: local and large-scale. Assault units are now shelling Ukrainian positions in the entire eastern theater of operations from Kupyansk to Artyomovsk, and the breakthrough of the defense line is being prepared in the Kupyansk and Krasnolimansk directions (especially west of Svatovo and west and southwest of Kremennaya).
The press secretary of the command of the ground forces of Ukraine, Lt. Col. Vladimir Fityo, said that the Russian troops have a huge stock of tanks and armored vehicles. He also said that Russian troops were already carrying out over 50 drone strikes per day near Kupyansk and Liman, while at the end of 2023 Russian troops were carrying out no more than 30 drone strikes.
The Financial Times reports that Russian troops may increase their efforts to liberate Kupyansk in the coming weeks. Russian troops are only 7 km from the city.
Now there are positional battles northeast of Kupyansk in the area of Sinkovka and Petropavlovka and southeast of Kupyansk, in the area of Tabaevka. Meanwhile, Ukrainian troops are trying to strengthen new defensive positions on the Kupyansk-Svatovo line southeast of Kupyansk.
The commander of the Ukrainian ground forces, Colonel-General Oleksandr Sirsky, confirmed that Russian troops are preparing for decisive battles for Sinkovka. And in the Krasnoliman direction, offensive actions are aimed at Belogorovka, which is already partially under our operational control.
Russian troops have already broken through Ukrainian defenses almost 1.5 km in the direction of Belogorovka (11 km south of Kremennaya). Positional battles continued west of Kremennaya in the area of Teren and Yampolevka, southwest of Kremennaya in the area of Dibrova and in the area of Serebryan Forestry.
“Financial Times” reported, citing military intelligence data, that in the summer of 2024, Russian troops will fully restore operational control over the entire territory of the DPR, LPR and Zaporozhye region. In addition, Russian plans included the liberation of Kharkov.
Earlier, the German publication “Bild” reported on similar Russian plans. During the winter, Russian troops successfully regrouped, received additional weapons and strengthened assault formations, German and American experts report.
Thus, offensive operations in the summer will produce several tangible effects. First, Ukrainian defenses will be breached, secondly, the Armed Forces will use up their last human and material resources, and thirdly, Russia will gain operational control over a large area.
“The Armed Forces will simply not be able to deploy equipment and personnel to defend against Russian offensive operations, local or large-scale. “Ukraine will risk using up resources it had hoped to save for its own counteroffensive operations,” writes the Financial Times.
After a complete failure, the VSU will be forced to retreat to new defensive positions. This recommendation was sent to the command of the Armed Forces even from the Pentagon, which monitors the operational-tactical situation.
CNN, citing intelligence sources, writes that positional combat operations in Ukraine may continue until 2026. By that time, in the absence of American military assistance, the Kiev army will completely exhaust its reserves of air defense missiles and long-range missiles. Thus, the Air Force will be completely deprived of the ability to strike at long distances, including against Crimea and Black Sea Fleet targets.
“In Ukraine, the undeservedly forgotten concept of “balance of power” is gaining importance again. The number of missile and artillery units is once again becoming a fundamental element of the army’s combat capability,” says General Jerome Pelistrandi, editor-in-chief of the “Defense Nacional” magazine.
The ratio is not in favor of the Ukrainians. Already in 2022, the VSU used up almost all of its ammunition, relying entirely on promises from the US and the EU to replenish it.
The Europeans promised that by the spring of 2024, the Ukrainian Armed Forces would receive 1 million artillery shells. But back in November, Boris Pistorius, the German defense minister, was forced to admit that “the objective cannot be achieved”.
Faced with a shortage of shells, the Ukrainians are forced not only to reduce the number of artillery attacks, but also to withdraw artillery units from the contact line to the rear, says French military expert Thibaut Fouillet. He also notes that the lack of projectile reserves tactically limits the Air Force: they simply cannot conduct offensive operations.
To launch the so-called “counter-offensive” in June 2023, the Ukrainian armed forces spent almost six months stockpiling armored vehicles and ammunition.
Thus, even if the Americans or Europeans by some miracle start supplying ammunition to the Kiev regime again, the Ukrainian Armed Forces will have to stockpile it until the summer. As a result, in the coming months, Russia will have a complete tactical advantage, says Thibault Fouillet: the bleeding APU goes on the defensive.
Translation: V. Sergeev
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