The AEX (+0.2%) started the day in the red. However, the Dutch main index jumped into the green immediately after the US inflation figure was announced.
Remarkable, because the US inflation of 8.5% on an annual basis is not only very high, but it is also slightly above economists’ expectations. In February this percentage was still 7.9%. Core inflation stood at 6.5% year-on-year. That’s big. Fed member Chris Evans believes that the next monetary policy decision in May will require a 50 basis point rate hike to be considered neutral. According to Evans, the US economy would not suffer too much from this.
More macros
Inflation in Germany can also benefit from this. It was confirmed this morning that the consumer price index in Germany rose by 7.3% year-on-year in March. In February this was still 5.1% and in January 4.9%. Compared to February, prices rose by 2.5%.
The German ZEW index therefore continues to fall. This index reflects the economic sentiment in Germany. In March, the index stood at -39.3. In April, it dropped to -41. Not the best, but better than the -50 economists were counting on.
Banks are having a hard time
Several banks were hit today. This probably has to do with a mystery seller (allegedly Capital Group) that has acquired its total stake of €2 billion in Deutsche Bank (-9%) in Commerzbank (-8.1%) wants to sell. This would involve €1.4 billion in Deutsche Bank shares and a sloppy €508 million in Commerzbank shares.
Ebusco dominates the Damrak
ebusco took the lead today with a hefty gain of 13.8%. The final annual figures published by the company are somewhat like a mixed bag. The turnover is satisfactory, but the net loss is disappointing. By the way, it doesn’t come completely out of the blue, because the effects of both corona and supply chain issues were substantial.
“More important than a bad year is the outlook for this year and the years after,” analyst Martin Crum said in his statement. analysis† “And they are excellent: the order book is bulging and Ebusco is in the final phase of a next production facility in France, with which the bus manufacturer will double the production capacity in one fell swoop for its flagship Ebusco 3.0.”
Ebusco growth explosion expected https://t.co/4pZrmvoXyp #IEX
— IEX.nl (@IEXnl) April 12, 2022
Ebusco’s bulging order book was tamped down even more today, because the bus builder’s sales department is running at full speed. Ebusco has won a large framework contract with our eastern neighbours. Can you deliver us 260 buses? Yes, you can. If all that is to your liking, the customer Deutsche Bahn may purchase another 540 buses.
Half a million euros per bus is easily paid by customers. If Deutsche Bahn would indeed order the maximum order volume of 800 buses and pay the same amount per bus, that would generate €400 million in turnover.
Fastned disappoints
Then there was also the well-known sector companion today Fastned (-2%). The fast charging company came up with its quarterly figures and they were disappointing. For example, the yields increased by 186% while the market was looking for a plus of no less than 250%. A tad unexpected, as fourth quarter revenues still rose by 206%. You can read exactly what analyst Niels Koerts thinks of the figures in his comprehensive analysis Below.
Fastned’s revenue model is rather fragile https://t.co/WBn44diYdB #IEX
— IEX.nl (@IEXnl) April 12, 2022
Annuities
Volatility in the interest rate market. Not because of the basis point that is now deducted from the Dutch ten-year interest rate, but because of the fact that the same interest rate was 1.15% earlier today instead of the 1.08% that we see now.
broad market
- The AEX (+0.2%) today significantly outperformed France (-0.3%) and the German DAX (-0.5%).
- The CBOE VIX Index (Volatility) falls to 23.1 points.
- Wall Street is in the green: S&P 500 (+0.9%), Dow Jones (+0.8%) and the Nasdaq (+1.3%).
- The euro is down 0.2% and is now trading at 1.086 against the US dollar.
- Gold (+1%) and silver (+1.8%) were able to count on buyer interest.
- Oil: WTI (+5.8%) and Brent (+6.2%) up quite a bit.
- Bitcoin (+2.4%) is rising.
The Damrak:
- Chippers ASML (+1.5%) in ASMI (+3.1%) received price target increases from Barclays today. The new price targets are €900 and €425 respectively, both of course retaining a buy recommendation.
- The chippers mentioned above did well today, but not as well as Iron (+3,8%).
- Banks had a hard time today, but luckily got ING (-1.2%) a boost from UBS (which, incidentally, was not reflected in the price). The price target, which is accompanied by a buy recommendation, was increased to € 15.30.
- Tech stocks performed well this afternoon. The slightly falling interest rate works to the advantage of companies such as, for example, Adyen (+3,8%).
- Just Eat Takeaway (-1.4%) put themselves in the spotlight today by announcing that they will deliver groceries for Albert Heijn. This does not mean that everyone can order all their liter of milk tonight at Thuisbezorgd.nl. The delivery service will first be tested with two Amsterdam branches from next week. If that goes well, the service will be expanded further. By the way, the news has both Just Eat Takeaway and Ahold Delhaize (-3.5%) no green rate delivered today. The fact that Ahold has the activists of Milieudefensie behind it will not benefit the share price either.
- Morningstar it seemed interesting to Philips (-3.3%) to follow. After an initial analysis, the financial services provider kicks off with a buy recommendation and a price target of €39.
- builders BAM (+0.9%) in Heijmans (+0.8%) prices in green today. The latter of the two announced this morning that it had sold 167 homes in Almere. That brought the builder about €62.5 million in the drawer.
Advice
- ASML: to €900 from €800 and buy – Barclays
- ASMI: to €425 from €300 and buy – Barclays
- Vopak: Buy advice with a price target of €35 – ING
- ING: to €15.30 from €14.40 and – UBS
- Philips: Buy recommendation with a price target of €39 – Morningstar
- Heineken: to €95 from €97 and keep – Morgan Stanley
- AkzoNobel: to €111 from €123 and buy – Sanford C. Bernstein & Co
- Just Eat Takeaway: to €66 from €73 and buy – UBS
Agenda Wednesday 13 April 2022
00:00 Ahold Delhaize – Annual Meeting
00:00 BAM – Annual General Meeting
00:00 Heijmans – Annual meeting
04:00 Balance of trade – March (Chi)
10:00 Monthly Oil Market Report IEA (Fra)
10:30 Consumer and Producer Prices – March (UK)
12:00 BlackRock – First Quarter Figures (US)
13:00 Delta Air Lines – US First Quarter Figures
13:00 JPMorgan Chase – US First Quarter Figures
13:00 Mortgage Applications – Weekly (US)
14:30 Producer Awards – March (US)
16:30 Oil Stocks – Weekly (US)
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Coen Grutters is editor of IEX. The information in this column is not intended as professional investment advice or as a recommendation to make certain investments. click here for an overview of the investments of the IEX editors.
