Last Monday the government introduced new restrictions. At a press conference, Minister of Social Affairs Lena Hallengren (S) referred to alarming signals from the hospitals:
– Despite the fact that we are many who are double and triple vaccinated – and thus have little risk of becoming seriously ill – we see that the burden on healthcare is increasing. In the last week alone, the number of patients in the country’s hospitals has increased by almost 40 percent, said Lena Hallengren.
But the Swedish statistics on what the inpatients are cared for can be misleading. In recent days, several regions have contacted the Swedish Public Health Agency and pointed out that the figures include a large number of patients being cared for. with, rather than for, covid-19.
– We need a better estimate, especially now that we have such a large spread of infection. We have been noticed by several people in healthcare about this, says state epidemiologist Anders Tegnell.
An example is women giving birth or patients who have had slippery accidents. If they test positive for covid-19 infection at admission, they may be counted as covid-19 patients in the statistics even though they have no symptoms of respiratory infection.
Magnus Gisslén, chief physician at Sahlgrenska University Hospital and professor of infectious diseases at the University of Gothenburg, estimates that at least a third of covid-19 patients in the region have other conditions than covid-19.
– Magnus Gisslén, chief physician at Sahlgrenska University Hospital and professor of infectious diseases at the University of Gothenburg.
Photo: Private
– It is probably significantly more than a third. It is difficult to give an exact figure. This applies to those who are vaccinated. Many of those vaccinated are in for something completely different but have tested positive for covid. In other words, they would have been inside regardless of whether they had covid or not. In order to find out the actual number, you need to go through records, says Magnus Gisslén.
All indications are that the new variant omicron is highly contagious but usually gives no or very mild symptoms to a vaccinated person. All patients admitted to hospital are tested for covid-19.
In recent days, the Swedish Public Health Agency has received signals from at least three regions that the statistics on hospital care are incorrect.
“Misleading statistics about COVID and inpatient care”, is the title of an email that the University Hospital in Uppsala sent to the state epidemiologist Anders Tegnell on Tuesday afternoon and which DN has read. The e-mail states that only a third of the covid patients who are admitted to hospital in Uppsala are cared for for covid-19. “The statistics on covid in inpatient care that are available on infection control websites, and which I guess are part of the basis for estimating the impact on healthcare, I think are starting to be seriously misleading,” writes a person at the hospital.
Anders Tegnell sent on Tuesday forwarded the email to a unit manager at the Public Health Agency. He then wrote: “More and more signals that the data we have overestimates the care burden”.
– State epidemiologist Anders Tegnell.
Photo: Jonas Ekströmer / TT
The discussion is reminiscent of it as reported in the Danish media. In Denmark, the infection control authorities are criticized for presenting too high figures regarding the number of patients admitted with covid-19. According to the newspaper Politiken, the Statens Serum Institut, SSI, reported 315 hospitalizations with covid-19 at the end of last year. But if you exclude all patients who only have covid as a co-diagnosis, ie who, for example, are cared for for arm fractures but have also tested positive for the disease, the figure will be significantly lower – 203.
In Sweden, statistics on hospital care are published regularly on the regions’ own websites, as well as by the National Board of Health and Welfare with some lag. It is unclear whether all these figures are covered by the same problem. The National Board of Health and Welfare states that their figures are adjusted afterwards when the person has been discharged from the hospital. Then the doctor states both a secondary and main diagnosis which means that the statistics can be distinguished. During the autumn of 2021, approximately 20 percent of covid patients had covid-19 as a co-diagnosis. Next week, the Swedish Public Health Agency expects to receive updated data from the National Board of Health and Welfare.
Both the National Board of Health and Welfare and The Swedish Public Health Agency believes that the statistics on hospital care have a great value, despite the problems.
– For care, it will be a fairly large device regardless of whether a patient has covid-19 as the main or secondary diagnosis. If a woman enters the delivery with covid-19, she must have her own room, her own staff and the staff cannot run between the rooms. The child can also not stay with other children, says Mona Heurgren, head of department at the National Board of Health and Welfare.
– Mona Heurgren, head of department at the National Board of Health and Welfare, in connection with a press conference in April 2020.
Photo: Anders Wiklund / TT
At the same time, some patients who only have covid-19 as a co-diagnosis may also need to be treated for their covid disease.
Anders Tegnell believes that the information does not affect the authority’s assessment of the current restrictions:
– We are talking about an overestimation of those who are really cared for by covid. Then it is the case that even those who are cared for with covid involve extra work for care because they need insulation and special handling, says Anders Tegnell.
On 1 February 2020, the Government decided to classify covid-19 as a so-called socially dangerous disease. Several people in the care sector, including the chief physician Magnus Gisslén in Gothenburg, believe that the authorities are now approaching a situation when there is reason to no longer classify covid-19 as a socially dangerous disease. In other words, it should be treated just like any other infection. Anders Tegnell tells DN that we are not there today but that we “in the long run” need to get there.
When will covid-19 stop being classified as a socially dangerous disease?
– It depends entirely on how it will develop. Because the omicron is so much milder, we may be in such a position ahead of the spring edge. But hard to know. There have been constant surprises.
Read more:
Professor: It may soon be time to stop classifying covid-19 as dangerous to society
Almost as much infection among vaccinated and unvaccinated
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