On January 26, he was 45.8 cases per 100,000 population, when the 650 mark was still crossed at the beginning of December: “We have reached a low point and that is good news, appreciates epidemiologist Philippe Amouyel, professor of public health at the Lille University Hospital. The other important figure is that of the coefficient of reproduction. It was Friday at 0.67, well below 1. These two elements show that there are few cases, and that these cases are not spreading, or very little. »
“endemic phase”
After nine epidemic waves, the death of some 164,000 French people and unprecedented health restrictions in our country, are we finally done with Covid-19? Not really… On Monday, the WHO thus decided to maintain its maximum level of alert, considering that we should not “underestimate this virus”. Obviously, this still leads many people to hospital, around 16,000 at the moment in France, including more than 900 in intensive care.
The Covid-19 has not disappeared and there is nothing to suggest that it will eventually do so, but there are reasons for optimism: “The virus has passed into the endemic phase, observes Philippe Amouyel. With people who have been vaccinated or who have already been infected, it has a harder time penetrating the population. Sometimes, it achieves this through a mutation which makes it more transmissible, but it is blocked more quickly”.
The threat of variants
Proof that the Covid-19 is gradually falling into line, several exceptional measures will end on Wednesday 1is february. Referring to “a favorable epidemic context”, the Ministry of Health announced that people who tested positive will no longer have to isolate themselves. Asymptomatic contact cases will no longer need to be tested. Similarly, derogatory work stoppages, without a waiting day, for positive people, will no longer be possible. “With the level of vaccination and immunity that we currently have in France, it is quite logical”, recognizes Philippe Amouyel.
Like the flu or bronchiolitis, Covid-19 is destined to become “a disease which exists in a population, experiences small peaks from time to time but does not require any particular measure”, continues the epidemiologist. What should we expect in the future? “As long as the virus circulates in the world, there will be risks of resurgence with more contagious variants, he warns. We must remain vigilant, maintain a surveillance system and continue to do sequencing”. Without forgetting, he adds, a “targeted vaccination” for “elderly and at risk” people.
