Despite the fact that the next parliamentary election is almost a year and a half away, in the autumn of 2024 the results of party preference studies of various public opinion research companies were published one after the other. The Hungarian Sociologist also studied how Hungarian parties would perform in a possible election at the end of November 2024.
Source: Magyar Tarsadalomkutató Kft.
The strong base of Fidesz
A Hungarian social researcher based on his survey, although 38 percent of the Hungarian population of voting age would vote for the Fidesz-KDNP coalition, Tisza’s support is only 26 percent on this basis, indicating much more social embeddedness strong in the ruling parties compared to other parties. A year and a half before the next parliamentary elections, Tisza’s sympathizers are more likely to promise to participate in the election than other parties, as Tisza’s disadvantage is slightly smaller (8 percent) among active voters who can choose a party, which is still far beyond the margin of error at a distance from Fidesz. Overall, it can be concluded that the ruling parties, which traditionally move well for elections, are not only currently leading the party’s popularity contest, but that they have large reserves for the next parliamentary elections.
Based on the responses of the active voters of the voting party, four parties would reach the threshold of 5 percent in list voting, as Fidesz-KDNP would confidently win the current election (45 percent), and Tisza Party (37 percent), the Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (6 percent) and the Hungarian Kétfarkú Kutya Párt (6 percent) would still get in, the other parties (including the Democratic Coalition) would be much shorter than the entry level.
The research was conducted by interviewing 1,000 telephone users (CATI), the data collection took place on November 19-22, 2024. It took place between The sample represents the population over 18 by gender, age, region, type of settlement and level of education. For a sample size of 1,000 people and a confidence level of 95 percent, the maximum sampling error is ±3.16 percent.
Given the potential for change highlighted by the poll, what specific policy areas do you anticipate will see the greatest shift in focus or direction depending on the election outcome?
## World Today News Interview: Analyzing Hungary’s Political Landscape
**Introduction:**
Welcome to World Today News. Today, we have two distinguished guests joining us to discuss the recent Hungarian Sociologist poll regarding party preferences ahead of the 2024 parliamentary elections.
Our guests are [**Guest 1 Name and Affiliation**] and [**Guest 2 Name and Affiliation**]. Welcome to you both.
**Section 1: Understanding the Data**
* **For both guests:** The Hungarian Sociologist poll reveals a significant lead for the Fidesz-KDNP coalition. How do you interpret these findings, especially considering the election is still over a year away?
* **Guest 1:** Can you elaborate on the concept of “social embeddedness” as it relates to Fidesz’s strong support?
* **Guest 2:**
While the poll shows a strong lead for Fidesz, the margin is smaller amongst active voters. What implications do you see in this difference?
**Section 2: Emerging Political Landscape**
* **Guest 1:** The poll suggests the Tisza Party and Mi Hazánk Mozgalom are likely to clinch seats in Parliament. What factors contribute to their rising popularity?
* **Guest 2:** Some analysts argue that the current political climate in Hungary favors right-leaning parties. To what extent do you agree with this statement?
* **For both guests:**
What are the potential implications for Hungary’s political future if these poll projections materialize in the 2024 election?
**Section 3: Looking Ahead**
* **Guest 1:**
How might the upcoming election campaign shift the political landscape further? What issues do you anticipate being central to the debate?
* **Guest 2:** What advice would you give to Hungarian voters as they approach this crucial election?
* **For both guests:**
Looking beyond the 2024 election, what are the long-term trends you see shaping Hungarian politics?
**Conclusion:**
Thank you both for sharing your valuable insights with us today. This has been a fascinating discussion, and we appreciate the thoughtful perspectives from both guests.
We encourage our viewers to stay informed and engaged as the political landscape in Hungary continues to evolve.
This interview structure provides a framework for a nuanced and insightful discussion, allowing both guests to offer their perspectives on the complex political situation in Hungary. Remember to tailor the specific questions to your guests’ expertise and ensure a balanced representation of different viewpoints.
