Federation of Thai Capital Market Organizations Reports Investor Confidence Index Survey Results February ’64 in the hot zone continually. Investors expect the COVID-19 situation Disengage from getting vaccinated Choose the travel stocks that are most worthwhile to invest
Mr. Paiboon Nalintraangkun, Chairman of the Board of Directors, Federation of Thai Capital Market Organizations The FETCO Investor Confidence Index (FETCO Investor Confidence Index) survey in February 2021 found that “Index in the next 3 months stood at 152.19, up 14.8% from the previous month. “Hot” for the third consecutive month Investors expect an easing of the Covid-19 situation.
As Thailand received the first lot of vaccines, it was the most supporting factor. Followed by the capital inflow. And the recovery of the domestic economy The factors that dragged the confidence of investors the most were the Covid-19 epidemic, which continued to increase infected. Followed by the situation of international conflicts And the economic recession in the country
FETCO Investor Confidence Index (FETCO Investor Confidence Index) survey in February 2021 was summarized as follows:
– The confidence index of all investors in the next 3 months (May 2021) is in the “hot” range (index range 120 -159), increasing 14.8% from the previous month to 152.19.
– The confidence of foreign investors is good. “Extremely hot” group of individual investors The group of institutional investors was in the “hot” category, while the securities companies account was “stable”.
– Most interesting business category Tourism and Leisure category (TOURISM)
– The most unattractive business category is the steel category.
– The driving factor that had the greatest influence on the Thai stock market was the situation of Covid-19 easing from vaccination.
– The traction factor that has the greatest influence on Thai stock markets is the Covid-19 epidemic, which continues to increase infected.
“The results of the survey as of February 2021, investors showed that the private investor confidence dropped 2.3% to 140.74, the securities company account group decreased 8.6% to 114.29 local institutional investors. Increased 10% to 129.41 and foreign investors rose 46.7% to 183.33.
Investors were most interested in tourism and leisure (TOURISM), followed by banking (BANK) and energy and utilities (ENERGY), while investors found that steel (STEEL) was not the most attractive to invest. Followed by the fashion category (FASHION) and the real estate development (PROP) category.
In February 2021, the SET index moved in a narrow range between 1,478.05 – 1,523.11, which this month the 2020 Thai economy (GDP) figures, which contracted to -6.1% due to the continued impact of the epidemic. Of the Covid-19 virus, the external demand for overall exports of goods and services remains weak. Foreign investors continually sell their net in the Thai stock market. And at the end of the month, FTSE Russell announced a reduction of Thai stocks in index calculations.
However, the capital market as a whole still received a positive effect from the Fed’s continued adoption of QE measures to inject liquidity. The arrival of the first lot of the Covid-19 “Sinovac” vaccine and the opening of nearly a hundred thousand trading accounts for OR listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand on February 11. By the end of February, the SET Index closed at 1,496.78, increasing 2.03% from the previous month.
International factors that are worth monitoring include the gradual release of the Lock Down in several European and American countries after their citizens have been vaccinated. This will have a positive effect on the economy. Large US economic stimulus plans Pending And meeting results of 3 major central banks (Fed, ECB and BoJ) after Bond Yield in many countries rose.
The domestic factors that need to be monitored include: Vaccine distribution process Government’s continued economic stimulus measures Trends in the recovery of the tourism sector And considering the draft constitution in the third term, which, if not approved May result in political unrest again “
Interest Rate Expectation Index March 2021
The index results reflect market expectations that have maintained the same view as last time that the MPC will maintain its policy rate at 0.5% at the March meeting. The 5-year and 10-year government bond yields at the end of the first quarter are likely to increase from the survey on February 19, 64, with a large number of respondents speculating that bond yields are expected to increase. 5 and 10 year old government may adjust more. Due to foreign factors, the US bond yields rose very high in the past. Worries about lower COVID-19 and wider vaccine distribution could drive investors to sell safer assets like government bonds and invest in riskier assets.
Some respondents, however, speculate that the yields of 5- and 10-year government bonds may drop as the recent spike in yields is much higher than fundamentals. And there may be intervention from the BOT if the yield is too high.
Ms. Ariya Tiranaprakit Deputy Managing Director Thai Bond Market Association Disclosure of Interest Rate Expectation Index (Interest Rate Expectation Index) for March 2021 with details as follows:
– The policy rate forecast index in the MPC meeting in February was at level 47, increasing from the previous one and still in the threshold. “Unchanged” reflects the market view that the MPC meeting in March is expected to maintain the policy rate at 0.5 percent due to the low interest rate already. PTT also has to monitor economic expansion. And fiscal measures that will be released this year to support decisions in determining the policy interest rate.
– Index forecast 5-year and 10-year government bond yields at the end of Q1 increased to the “Increase” criteria, with the index increasing significantly from the previous time from the respondents. More numbers predict higher yields. This reflects a market view that the 5-year and 10-year bond yields are expected to increase from 0.89% and 1.50% respectively as of the survey date (19 Feb’21). Forecasts are demand and supply in the bond market. Global interest rate direction, including foreign fund flow mainly.
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