Yesterday and Wednesday, we believed that Federal Reserve officials gave hawkish speeches and the market reduced bets on an interest rate cut in March, which put pressure on gold. However, the probability of an interest rate cut in March still reached 66%, which may limit the short-term downside. Here are some operational suggestions: Treated with a weak shock mentality, the lower support focuses on the 2016 to 2013 US dollar area, and the upper pressure focuses on the 2034 to 2038 US dollar area. If gold breaks through downward, it will increase the short-term downside risk and may test the 2,000 US dollar integer position.
Judging from the subsequent trend, before the US market opened, gold stabilized above US$2015, rebounded upward to US$2028 and met resistance. After the US market opened, gold broke through downward, refreshing a one-month low to US$2001, near the integer position of US$2000. After stabilizing, the trend of gold after its downward breakthrough is basically in line with expectations. Gold rebounded slightly after stabilizing. The rebound trend continued on Thursday, reaching a maximum of 2014 US dollars. It is currently trading around 2010 US dollars. The short-term rebound is weak.
Wolfinance star analyst Huang Lichen believes that after the Federal Reserve turned dovish in December last year, some officials tried to convey a hawkish tone to the market, as well as strong non-agricultural data and a slight increase in inflation data, which made the market begin to re-examine the prospect of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut. Investors have reduced their bets on a rate cut in March as they ponder whether a rate cut in March is too radical. This week, Fed officials spoke hawkishly and retail sales data showed optimism, further dampening expectations for a rate cut. This is the main factor causing recent pressure on gold.
In terms of news, after the Federal Reserve turned dovish, the probability of an interest rate cut in March this year once rose to 90%. However, some Federal Reserve officials tried to convey a hawkish tone and recently released optimistic non-farm data, retail sales data, and a slight increase in inflation data. , which caused investors to reduce their bets on an interest rate cut in March. The probability of an interest rate cut in March continued to cool down, suppressing gold prices to a new one-month low. However, the latest data showed that the possibility of an interest rate cut in March was 58%, which is still more than 50%. This may Limiting gold’s room for further downside in the short term.
On the daily chart, gold has started to decline in the past three weeks after continuously testing the upper Bollinger Band and encountering resistance. Although it rebounded during the period, it did not hold the middle track of the Bollinger Band. It broke through downward on Tuesday and set a new level on Wednesday. A new monthly low, gold rose from 1810 to 2144 US dollars at 0.382. This is an important support level for gold in the past month. It is currently forming a short-term suppression. In addition, the 5-day and 10-day moving averages have formed pressure around 2030 US dollars. Continue to pay attention below. At the integer position of 2,000 US dollars, the gold price stabilized here on Wednesday. If gold continues to decline, it may test 1810 and rise to the 0.5 position of 2,144 US dollars. The gold price bottomed out here in December last year. The 5-day and 10-day moving averages are dead crosses, the MACD indicator is dead cross, and the KDJ and RSI indicators are dead crosses. The short-term technical outlook is biased towards the short side.
Gold intraday reference: The market has reduced its bets on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut in March, and the trend of gold is under pressure. In terms of operation, it is recommended to treat the market in a volatile and weak way. The upper pressure will focus on the 2015 to 2017 US dollar area, followed by 2030 US dollars. The lower support will focus on the integer position of 2000 US dollars. If the gold price falls here, it may increase the short-term downside risk, and there is an opportunity to test 1980 US dollars.
2024-01-18 09:28:00
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