Nick Timiraos, a reporter for the Wall Street Journal (WSJ), known as the voice of the Federal Reserve (Fed), overturned the dovish news released in less than 10 days, saying that the central bank is trying to cool inflation and the point. final interest rates may be higher than Market is expected to have fallen due to Fed dovish treatment, pending this week’s meeting decision to find clues that the Fed will slow the pace of interest rate hikes in December Monday (31st) the main US equity indices opened lower.
Before the deadline,Industrial average of the Dow Jonesdown by almost 160 points or almost 0.5%,Nasdaq Composite Indexfell by more than 125 points or nearly 1.1%,S&P 500 Indexfell by almost 0.8%,Semiconductor of PhiladelphiaThe index fell 2.3%.
The Fed will announce its November interest rate decision at 2:00 Taiwan time on Thursday (3/11) and President Powell will also hold a post-meeting press conference. The market expects the Fed to continue raising interest rates for the fourth time this week by 3 yards (75 basis points), although a small rate hike will be discussed at the December meeting.
Prior to maturity, the CME FedWatch Tool showed that the US Federal Funds Rate Futures market estimated the probability of the Fed raising interest rates by 3 yards this week was 88.7% and the probability to raise interest rates by 2 yards (50 basis points) was 11.3%%, while the probability of a 3-yard rate hike in December dropped below 50%.
From a longer-term perspective, most economists predict that the Fed could initiate a cycle of rate cuts in the second half of next year, albeit smaller, even if the rate cut will be greater in 2024.
It is worth noting that Nick Timiraos, a reporter for the Wall Street Journal (WSJ), known as the Fed microphone, said on Sunday (30) that the end point of interest rates could exceed expectations in order to cool inflation and high interest rates will continue to rise for a long time.
Timiraos said the Fed could cut the rate hike in December, which raised the market’s dovish expectations, but turned 180 degrees in less than 10 days. He pointed out that during the outbreak, US fiscal and monetary policies “drained water”, resulting in exceptionally sound financial conditions for households and businesses, increased savings and reduced interest payments, which made more difficult for the Fed to curb high inflation.
Also, on Friday (11/4) the US Nonfarm Payroll Report for October will be released and the market expects the labor market to slow down. Unemployment estimates have risen to 3.6% from 3.5%, still a low of nearly half a century.
In other news,EURAffected by the surge in energy prices in the region, the adjusted consumer price index (CPI) in October rose 10.7% year-on-year, continuing to hit a record high, which also highlights the pressure on European Central Bank (ECB) to raise interest rates.
Russia has asked the UN Security Council to hold a meeting on the Ukrainian drone attack on the ships of the Russian Black Sea fleet involved in the “grain channel” security mission, which also led Russia to withdraw from the country. Istanbul agreement aimed at exporting Ukrainian wheat. Prices of wheat and corn futures have heard the news soar.
In the foreign exchange market, in order to preventJPYFalling into the abyss of fate, Japan spent $ 6.3 trillion in OctoberJPY(about $ 42.42 billion) for foreign exchange intervention, not only more than double the scale used in September, but also a new record.
However, as US and Japanese monetary policy increasingly moves in the opposite direction,JPYIt continues to be under pressure, currently at 148.66 JPYaround the level, so far this yearJPYIt fell by over 22%.
Starting at 9:00 pm on Monday (31st) Taipei time:
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Tucson future (TSP-USA) plunged 38.27% to $ 3.9 per share at the start of trading
Self-driving truck manufacturer TuSimple has announced the firing of its CEO, president and chief technology officer Hou Xiaodi. Additionally, TuSimple will also remove Hou Xiaodi from the board in the future, Ersin Yumer, executive vice president of operations, will temporarily serve as CEO and chairman as the company begins looking for a new CEO.
According to media reports, US authorities are investigating whether Tucson has deceived investors in the future by funding and transferring technology to the Chinese hydrogen-powered heavy truck startup Hydron.
Pioneering heavy industries (CAT-US) fell 1.29% to $ 216.51 per share at the start of the trade
Heavy equipment maker Caterpillar fell 1.2% in pre-market trading after UBS downgraded the stock to “Neutral” from “Buy” and said the downgrade reflected that the company has a risk / reward relationship. more balanced, but remains bullish on its long-term outlook.
Robin Hood (HOOD-US) rose 0.7% to $ 11.58 per share at the start of the trade
“Cathie Wood” (Cathie Wood) bought deep last week when the share price of online brokerage Robinhood Markets (Robinhood Markets) rebounded from an all-time low four months ago. ARK Next Generation Internet (ARKW-US) and ARK Fintech Innovation (ARKF-USA) bought more than 185,000 shares of Robinhood on Monday and Friday, a re-buy from the female stock god since May 5 this year.
Shares of Robinhood have risen about 65% from their all-time lows in June, but are still down more than 80% from their all-time highs set in 2021.
The main economic data today:
- The October US Chicago PMI reported 45.2, expected to be 47, the previous value of 45.7
Wall Street Analysis:
Morgan Stanley strategist Michael Wilson said the Fed rate hike cycle is coming to an end. Economic indicators, including a reversal of the 10-year and 3-month US Treasury yield curves, are “supporting a Fed shift sooner rather than later,” Wilson wrote in a report Monday. Whether you continue, suspend or even completely stop is critical. “
Wilson is bullish in the short termS&P 500 Index, and expects the benchmark index to rise to 4,150 points, up about 6% from Friday’s close, with stops set at 3,700 points. Wilson said last week that the bear market in US equities could end in the first quarter.
Investment strategist Louis Navellier believes that as energy stocks get more investor attention,S&P 500 IndexSignificant corrections are expected in the coming years. In short, energy stocks will outperform technology stocksS&P 500 Indexone of the key sectors.
Navellier predicts that the growth trend of energy stocks will continue and that by 2025 the energy sector will be inS&P 500 IndexChina’s share will reach 30%, which will be 15 times that of 2020. However, Navellier also pointed out that the growing importance of energy stocks means that the tech sector is in decline.
