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February sees a decline in U.S. job openings to 9.93 million, not meeting market forecasts

U.S. job openings fell to their lowest level since May 2021 in February. Although it was suggested that the demand for labor has cooled, the job market remains too tight from the perspective of US monetary policy.

Key Point
  • U.S. job openings fell to just over 9.93 million in February
    • The median economist estimate is 10.5 million
    • Exceeded everyone’s expectations
    • The previous month was revised downward to 10.56 million (preliminary figure of 10.82 million).

Upper row: Number of job openings, Lower row: Number of job openings per unemployed person

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

The statistic can fluctuate wildly from month to month, but it showed signs that the supply and demand for labor is rebalancing. However, more progress is needed, especially in the service sector, to lead to easing wage pressures. A strong job market remains a major hurdle for the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which wants to bring inflation down to its 2% target.

The turnover rate, which is the ratio of voluntary turnover among all employees, rose slightly to 2.6%. Voluntary turnover is equivalent to about 4 million people.

The number of job openings for each unemployed person fell to 1.67, the lowest since November 2009. The previous month was about 1.9 cases. Before the new coronavirus became a pandemic, it was hovering around 1.2.

The FOMC has been watching this ratio closely, citing the persistently high number of job openings as a reason it can keep the labor market, and therefore inflation, in check without causing unemployment to soar.

Job openings fell notably in business services, healthcare, social assistance, transportation, warehousing and utilities. The increases were in construction and recreational entertainment. Hiring softened while layoffs fell.

For more information on the U.S. Department of Labor Survey of Employment Trends (JOLTS), see Statistical Tables.

Original title:US Job Openings Fall Below 10 Million for First Time Since 2021(excerpt)

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