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Electricity Prices in 2025: A 14% Drop for Some, a 9% Rise for Others
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Starting February 1, 2025, millions of French households will see significant changes in their electricity bills. While customers on the regulated tariff will benefit from a 14% drop in their kWh price,those on non-indexed market offers could face a 9% increase. This shift highlights the growing divide between different energy consumers in France.
Who Benefits from the Regulated Tariff Reduction?
Approximately 20.4 million households—58.7% of the total—are currently on the EDF regulated tariff or a similar plan offered by local companies like ES Strasbourg, GEG, or UEM.These customers will see their price per kWh drop by 14%, though their subscription fees will increase slightly. According to Matias Perea,editorial manager of Jechange.fr, this translates to an 11-12% reduction in their overall bill.
Here’s a breakdown of the estimated changes:
| Component | Before February 1 | After | Evolution |
|———————-|———————–|———–|—————|
| Supply | 0,2306 | 0,1827 | -20,78% |
| TURPE (CU) | 0,0458 | 0,0493 | +7,70% |
| Excise duties | 0,0210 | 0,0337 | +60,48% |
| TVA | 0,0419 | 0,0361 | -14,00% |
| kWh TTC | 0,2516 | 0,2164 | -14,00% |
Source: Selectra
Additionally, 18% of non-regulated customers—around 3 million households—are on market offers indexed to the regulated rate. These consumers will also benefit from the 14% reduction, according to the CRE Observatory Q3 2024.
Though, the situation is less clear for the 800,000 households on the Tempo option. the CRE has hinted at a potential “smoothed” tariff increase, which could offset the expected drop.
In total, 23 million households and 1.6 million non-residential sites (primarily small businesses) are set to see their electricity bills decrease considerably in early 2025.
What About Non-Indexed Market Offers?
For the 11 million households on non-indexed market offers, the outlook is less favorable. These customers, mostly on “fixed-price” plans, are expected to face a 9% increase in their electricity costs. While these offers have historically been cheaper than the regulated tariff, the upcoming changes could narrow or even reverse this advantage.
Key Takeaways
- Regulated tariff customers: A 14% drop in kWh prices, leading to an 11-12% reduction in overall bills.
- Indexed market offers: Similar benefits to regulated tariff customers.
- Tempo option users: Uncertainty looms, wiht potential tariff adjustments.
- Non-indexed market offers: A 9% increase in electricity costs.
This shift underscores the importance of understanding your energy contract and exploring options to optimize your electricity costs.if you’re unsure about your current plan, consider comparing offers to ensure you’re getting the best deal.
For more insights, check out the CRE Observatory Q3 2024 report or explore Selectra’s guide to energy tariffs.
What’s your take on these changes? Will you benefit from the drop, or are you bracing for an increase? Share your thoughts in the comments below!
Electricity Prices Set to Rise in 2025: What You Need to Know
Electricity prices in France are poised for significant changes in 2025, with increases in taxes and regulated rates set to impact consumers.According to the latest data from the Selectra electricity price index, the average price per kWh, currently at €0.1639 excluding tax (€0.2219 including tax), is expected to rise by 8.78% on February 1, 2025, reaching €0.2414 per kWh. This increase will push market prices above the future regulated rate of €0.2164 per kWh, raising questions about the competitiveness of market offers.
Breaking Down the Price Hike
The upcoming price adjustments are driven by several factors, including increases in the TURPE (Tarif d’Utilisation des Réseaux Publics d’Électricité) and excise duties. The TURPE, which covers the cost of using public electricity networks, has already risen by 4.8% as of November 1, 2024, and is expected to increase by an additional 2.9% in February 2025, bringing the total increase to 7.7%. Meanwhile,the excise tax on electricity will jump from €21 to €33.7 per MWh, a staggering 60% increase.
Here’s a breakdown of the estimated changes:
| Component | Before (€) | After (€) | Change |
|———————-|—————-|—————|————–|
| Supply | 0.1181 | 0.1181 | 0.00% |
| TURPE | 0.0458 | 0.0493 | 7.70% |
| Excise Duties | 0.0210 | 0.0337 | 60.48% |
| VAT | 0.0370 | 0.0402 | 8.78% |
| Total kWh (TTC) | 0.2219 | 0.2414 | 8.78% |
Source: Selectra electricity price index
Will the Regulated Rate Become the Best Option?
The regulated electricity rate, often seen as a benchmark for affordability, may soon become the most advantageous option for consumers. Its Tempo option, which offers discounts of 30 to 40% compared to the basic rate, already outperforms many market offers.With the upcoming price adjustments, market offers that previously provided discounts of up to 30% on the kWh price (excluding taxes) will struggle to compete. From February 2025, finding reductions of more than 10% compared to the regulated rate will be challenging.
However, the landscape is set to shift again with the end of the ARENH (Accès Régulé à l’Électricité Nucléaire Historique) mechanism on December 31, 2025. This system,which allows alternative suppliers to purchase nuclear-generated electricity at a fixed price of €42 per MWh,has been a cornerstone of regulated pricing.Its disappearance will likely lead to further adjustments in regulated rates,potentially driving prices higher.
As stated in Article R337-22 of the Energy Code:
“Any change in the price of regulated access to historic nuclear electricity or in the rates for use of public electricity networks gives rise to the modification of the regulated sales rates in force to take this change into account.”
What Does This Mean for Consumers?
For households, the upcoming changes underscore the importance of staying informed about electricity pricing trends. While the regulated rate may offer short-term savings, the long-term outlook remains uncertain. Consumers are encouraged to compare offers and consider their energy consumption patterns to make the most cost-effective choice.
As the energy market evolves, one thing is clear: the days of significant discounts on market offers may be numbered. With rising taxes and the end of the ARENH mechanism, the future of electricity pricing in France is set to be anything but predictable.
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Of electricity pricing in France is poised for critically important shifts. Here’s a summary of what consumers need to no and how they can navigate these changes:
Key Points to Remember
- Regulated Tariff Customers (23 million households and 1.6 million non-residential sites):
– A 14% drop in kWh prices is expected, leading to an 11-12% reduction in overall bills.
- This group will benefit the most from the upcoming changes.
- Indexed Market Offers (3 million households):
– these customers will also benefit from the 14% reduction, as their rates are tied to the regulated tariff.
- Tempo Option Users (800,000 households):
– The situation is less clear, with potential “smoothed” tariff increases that could offset the expected drop.
- non-Indexed Market Offers (11 million households):
- These customers, mostly on fixed-price plans, are expected to face a 9% increase in electricity costs.
- Historically cheaper than the regulated tariff, these offers may lose their competitive edge.
- Price Breakdown for 2025:
– The average price per kWh is expected to rise by 8.78%, driven by increases in TURPE (7.7%) and excise duties (60.48%).
– Market prices will surpass the regulated rate, making the latter potentially more attractive.
- End of ARENH Mechanism (December 31, 2025):
- The disappearance of this mechanism, which allows option suppliers to purchase nuclear-generated electricity at a fixed price, could lead to further adjustments in regulated rates.
What Should Consumers Do?
- Review Your Contract: Understand whether you’re on a regulated tariff, indexed market offer, or fixed-price plan.
- Compare Offers: Use tools like Selectra’s guide to energy tariffs to explore your options and ensure you’re getting the best deal.
- Monitor Trends: Stay informed about upcoming changes, especially as the ARENH mechanism ends and its impact on prices becomes clearer.
- Optimize Consumption: Consider energy-saving measures to mitigate the impact of rising costs.
Long-Term Outlook
While the regulated tariff may offer short-term savings, the long-term outlook is uncertain due to rising taxes and the end of the ARENH mechanism. Consumers should remain vigilant and proactive in managing their energy contracts to navigate these changes effectively.
Final Thoughts
The upcoming changes in electricity pricing highlight the importance of understanding your energy contract and staying informed about market trends.Whether you’re set to benefit from the drop or bracing for an increase, taking steps to optimize your energy costs can help you stay ahead in a shifting landscape.
What’s your take on these changes? Will you benefit from the drop, or are you preparing for an increase? Share your thoughts in the comments below!
