Closer than ever, it seems, is humanity to a – new type – interwar crash that led to World War II.
The CEOs of the world’s biggest companies fear that we are in the most dangerous and dire position in decades internationally.
The “deck” is dealt again
Global power relations and geopolitics are changing and the “deck” is being redistributed, at least if there is destabilization again, with the main focus at the moment being the Middle East, but also the war in Ukraine, an active volcano boiling over.
If the world’s leaders do not “play” their “cards” well, the dangers are more visible than ever.
JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon recently warned that this may be the most dangerous time the world has seen in decades.
Warnings on the international economy – Fears of a crash
Growing geopolitical threats are at the heart of business decisions and create a climate of insecurity and uncertainty that affects global economic activity.
The United States is facing the fourth worst turning point in its history since the early 20th centuryu century and if world leaders get it wrong, the consequences could lead to a situation similar to that of the 1930s which eventually led to the outbreak of World War II.
What multinational CEOs say
This is supported by Frederic Kempe, CEO of the Atlantic Council think tank, and it is precisely because of this fear that most CEOs of the world’s largest corporations and multinationals are focused on today.
He himself, speaking to CNBC Global Evolve, testifies that most CEOs he talks to tell him they are increasingly concerned about China, Russia, and the Middle East.
As he characteristically notes, “Geopolitics invades the boardrooms in a way that has never happened before in my life so far.”
Geopolitical threats and operations
According to Frédéric Kempe, “Every CEO, every bank I talk to, is now factoring geopolitics into their thinking, in a way that wasn’t the case five years ago.”
According to Kembe, this shift does not come suddenly with the outbreak of war in the Middle East between Israel and Hamas. Equally, it is something that has been building over the past five years, as a series of exogenous shocks have upended the markets’ status quo.
For Frederik Kempe, Putin’s war in Ukraine was a warning sign, in fact most major companies set up specialized teams of geopolitical analysis and foreign relations management.
Exogenous shocks
It seems reasonable for most CEOs to conclude that things could get worse. The first four years of the last decade have seen four exogenous shocks:
- The coronavirus
- The awkward withdrawal of the American government from Afghanistan which weakened it globally
- Russia’s invasion of Ukraine
- The war in the Middle East that intensifies the anxiety of generalizing the conflict.
In fact, the managing director of the said “think tank” wonders if something so serious has happened only in the first four years of the current decade, why shouldn’t this happen again in the next six?
After all, three major turning points for history were World War I, World War II, and the Cold War.
The world is so interconnected today, with the greatest technological capability we’ve ever had, that evil can spread much faster than ever before in Kempe’s time.
The role of the US
He even considers the role of the United States as a regulator of the world order to be of major importance. He explains that the isolationism pursued by the American side after World War I brought about the Holocaust, millions of deaths, World War II.
But the change of attitude after the Second World War, as well as the establishment of international organizations, such as the United Nations and NATO, brought about a normalization of the situation.
He points out at this point in time that the US should be mindful of the war in Ukraine, because if it doesn’t support the Ukrainian side enough, then it might be a green light for China to strike at Taiwan.
Source: in.gr
