“Fear of the Paper Daggers: The High Stakes of Plebiscite Elections for Pedro Sánchez”

David Lloyd George (1863-1945), Welshman, of the Liberal Party, was Prime Minister of the United Kingdom between 1916 and 1922, from the middle of World War I until late in the postwar period of that war. In 1923 he lost at the polls and it was then that he said that «elections are sometimes the revenge of the citizen. The ballot is a paper dagger.” Pedro Sánchez, who has emerged unscathed from a thousand impossible battles and at a disadvantage, fears the votes – daggers – of the elections next Sunday. He or his team closest to him, criticized for the lack of parity, have turned the regional and municipal elections into a kind of plebiscite due to the intensity of the president’s involvement in the campaign. He plays with the advantage that regional barons and municipal candidates would take the defeat directly but, if it happens, it will also splash the tenant of La Moncloa. The big problem with plebiscites and referendums is that they are often “loaded by the devil” and are unpredictable. There is a long series of precedents. The historical Charles de Gaulle (1890-1970) lost a referendum in 1969 and had to resign. In 1970, British Prime Minister Harold Wilson (1916-1995) brought forward an election that he believed would be a plebiscite and suffered a resounding defeat. Pinochet (1915-2006) also skidded in 1988 with a referendum to perpetuate himself in power and he clearly lost. In 1997, Jacques Chirac (1932-2019), president of the French Republic, forced elections to secure his majority, his party capsized and he had to govern in “cohabitation” with a socialist prime minister. Finally, David Cameron, British Prime Minister, resigned after losing the Brexit referendum in 2016 against the –adjusted– but favorable forecasts. Sánchez is not risking his position on 28-M, not even in the event of a catastrophe, which could always be sweetened with some partial success –the Barcelona mayor’s office, for example–, which there will be even in the worst scenario. However, he has risked a lot and only he knows if it is because of his attempt to avoid a disaster or because of the boundless confidence in his abilities. In any case, there they are and they are looking for a recipient –it could be anyone– some ballots that are paper daggers, as Lloyd George suffered.