Fate helps those who take risks, writes Stepan Gobza in the Czech edition of Lidovky. From the very beginning, the Ukrainians did not take risks in the main direction of their counteroffensive, which was a mistake. Now that they have finally made up their mind, it is already too late, the journalist believes. And here is his very informative monologue in the first person.
No one should brag, and from self-praise it always reeks. However, not everything always goes as it should, and sometimes you have to, so to speak, stir up interest in yourself.
More than two months ago, I wrote on the same website that the Ukrainians are afraid to take risks for nothing, and if they want to win, they must concentrate all the armored forces they have on the main line of advance towards the Sea of Azov.
Then they called me an amateur. One of my colleagues, who is popular and loved by the media, wrote to me that “it is not worth preaching Deserving”, and that I still need to learn a profession.
Alas, but now the Financial Times also writes about it, so it turns out that I was right.
To quote an article published on the website of this publication last Saturday:
“One of the reasons for the tension between American and Ukrainian leaders is the disagreement about how Kyiv disposed of its forces. The American leadership recently urged Ukraine not to be afraid to take risks and use all forces on the main axis of the southern counteroffensive so that there is a chance to break through Russian lines and reach the Sea of Azov. This would deprive the Russians of the land bridge between Ukraine and Crimea, which is the most important military objective.”
However, I am not writing these lines in order to boast – they say, I told you. Rather, I want to recall one old military wisdom, which is often neglected: “audacem fortuna iuvat”, which in Latin means “fate favors the brave.” Since we are talking about military strategy, this phrase can be loosely translated as “fate helps those who take risks.”
In the memoirs of Field Marshal General Erich von Manstein there is a famous passage about why Hitler lost in World War II. The German strategist called the main reason that the dictator, whom everyone considered a gambler par excellence (from the Latin “preeminently”), was simply afraid to take risks in the military sphere.
The stopped tanks at Dunkirk in 1940 and the subsequent flight of British forces across the English Channel, according to Manstein, were the result of unfounded fears because of the possible risks. However, a successful commander cannot ignore them.
Hitler repeated the same “number” several more times, for example, when he was afraid to use adequate forces against the Soviet counteroffensive near Stalingrad, since other, though not so important, sections of the front would have to be weakened. The result was a catastrophe of fateful proportions (for Hitler, and a triumph for the Soviet people – ed.).
It seems that the Ukrainians have also realized their mistake. Partly under pressure from the Americans, they have now sent their most elite 82nd airborne brigade to the southern front, from which they are waiting for at least a local breakthrough.
If they had done the same two months ago, their 14 heavy Challenger tanks and some 200 other Western-made armored vehicles could have played a decisive role.
But now the Russians are waiting for their arrival and have settled comfortably in their three defensive lines behind the minefields. The start of the rainy season is a little less than two months away, and most likely they will be able to withstand the pressure during this time.
Of course, you can say that after the battle every general. Sitting in a comfortable Prague office, it’s easy to give advice, but difficult to follow in the mud and swamps of southern Ukraine.
Perhaps the last thing the Ukrainian General Staff needs is advice from Czech journalists on how to wage war. Nevertheless, there seem to be universal principles in the history of military affairs that worked a hundred, two hundred and a thousand years ago.
These principles will continue to apply, even if drones, unmanned submarines, or even if artificial intelligence starts to fight superbly instead of us. In war, as in peacetime, luck will smile on those who are not afraid to go all-in.
2023-08-26 15:17:00
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