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Brexit was their big topic. Now the far-right Reform UK party is pushing the Conservatives ahead of them. In surveys it is already the third strongest party – and is becoming a source of division for the conservative camp.
It has the independence of the United Kingdom in its DNA – the right-wing British party Reform UK. When it was founded in 2018, it was called the “Brexit Party,” which says a lot about its orientation: leaving the European Union is its big issue.
Now, after leaving the EU, the national-conservative party continues to make a name for itself with a new name. Reform UK wants to limit immigration, reform the health sector by redirecting money earmarked for climate action, and promises cheaper energy prices and lower taxes.
Far-right party at poll high
The populist program is well received by a growing electorate. “Our poll numbers are going up steeply,” said party leader Richard Tice happily in front of hundreds of party supporters at the party congress at the end of February.
“While we are making gains, Rishi Sunak’s party is losing in the polls,” Reform UK party leader Tice rubs his hands happily: “That’s why I renamed him – ‘Sinking Sunak’.”
Isolation rhetoric is paying off – for the protest party
“Among less educated men living in rural areas, Reform UK is already the strongest party,” observes Tony Travers. He is a political scientist at the renowned London School of Economics and Political Science.
Caption: Party leader Richard Tice (pictured) is pleased with the rising poll numbers of his Reform UK. Keystone/EPA/TOLGA AKMEN (04/08/2024)
Travers speaks of a crisis of trust that has affected the two major parties. “A large part of the population thinks that politics does nothing for them. And that the western, liberal political model is less efficient than it was 20 or 30 years ago,” analyzes Travers. “That’s one of the reasons Reform UK has taken off.”
The British economy is stagnating and inflation remains high, fueled by high energy prices. Added to this are the international tensions that would increase isolationist tendencies among the population, said Travers.
Rishi Sunak swings to the right
Conservative Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has long recognized the danger that Reform UK poses to his party. He is therefore focusing on the same issues: curbing illegal and legal immigration, shorter waiting times in the healthcare system and lower taxes.
From the political scientist’s point of view, Sunak’s move to the right – especially on the immigration issue – is risky: “The Conservatives are in danger of losing the moderate center electorate in the south of England.”
Labor as a laughing third party
If the conservative camp splits, this will help Labor win the election, the conservative daily The Telegraph warned in January: “Reform UK will help Labor gain a huge majority.”
If Reform UK puts forward a candidate in all constituencies, The Telegraph concluded from a YouGov poll, “then Labor will win a 120-seat majority.”
Political scientist Travers estimates that Reform UK would have a 13 to 15 percent voter share of two to three of the 650 seats in the British House of Commons. “The British electoral system favors the winner of the election. Parties with less than 20 percent of the vote practically come away empty-handed.”
2024-04-12 19:03:00
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